UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit - Staff Predictions
by Earl Montclair on Feb 3, 2012 1:25 PM EST
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Tomorrow night is the night where we finally see who will be crowned the Interim UFC Welterweight Champion. Nick Diaz will take on Carlos Condit in a fight that legitimately cannot disappoint. I have thought about this fight for months and have yet to think of a single way it could be bad or even average. These two guys are going to go in there and tear the house down, which will be something we have not seen in a VERY long time in a Welterweight title fight.
The co-main event of the evening is a Heavyweight collision between Fabricio Werdum and Roy Nelson. Add in some Bantamweight action with Renen Barao facing Scott Jorgensen, a clash of wrestlers with Josh Koscheck squaring off with Mike Pierce and Ed Herman looking to make it three straight wins since his return to the Octagon against main card newcomer Clifford Starks and you have got an exciting Super Bowl weekend card.
Predictions!
Earl - Diaz wins his fights through a systematic breaking down of his opponent’s bodies and wills. This leads me to believe that Carlos Condit’s main route to victory is by blasting Nick early. Condit might not hit harder than Paul Daley but he is far more versatile with his striking than Semtex is. I would not be shocked in the least with a late round TKO for Diaz, but I can’t get the Daley fight out of my head. Carlos puts one to his chin and finishes him for the belt. Carlos Condit, TKO, Round 1.
Cory - Diaz is... worth a lot more than a paragraph. So is Condit. I really can see this fight ending a number of different ways. I can’t really think of an eloquent way to sum up my guesses on this fight, so I’ll just say that I think that Diaz gets a mid-round TKO.
Luke - Everything has gone Condit’s way in the lead up to this fight. He got to see teammate Donald Cerrone fall prey to the Diaz mind games just over two months ago and lose control of the fight. The mania around GSP vs Diaz has made it easy for him to keep his head down and just prepared to play his game, not Nick’s. Unfortunately it’s "damned it you do, damned if you don’t" for Condit in this fight. You see, despite finishing his last two fights in the first round, Carlos has a nasty habit of starting fights slowly before picking things up in the later rounds. Against Nick Diaz, you can’t start slow or you’ll never catch up. Yet in a five round fight with him, you can’t really start fast either or you run a real risk of gassing out after three. I think Condit will take the former approach, work his way into this one and rely on the gameness Luke Thomas spoke of to get him through the championship rounds. It won’t. Nick Diaz, TKO, Round 4.
Rainer - Ladies and germs, I present you with...my last contribution as an HKL staff member! Condit has so much going for him--varied striking game, excellent scrambles, and great submission acumen, all resulting in an almost unparalleled rate of finishing, with no less than 26 of 27 victories ending in TKO or submission (and with those 26 split down the middle, to boot). Unfortunately, against Diaz, I believe he’ll be running into someone who edges him out both in striking and grappling. Diaz, TKO, Round 5.
Earl - Fabricio was oddly winning the striking battle against Overeem but cost himself the fight with the flopping nonsense. Roy Nelson has a rock head and he withstood a devastating onsalught from Junior dos Santos so I doubt Werdum is going to be able to put Roy away. Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em boys because we may be in for a long fight. Fabricio Werdum, Unanimous Decision.
Cory - I keep picturing Roy landing an enormous overhand right that sends Werdum crumpling to the canvas with a goofy smile on his face. Make it happen, Roy. Nelson - KO.
Luke - Earl, you don’t actually believe that Werdum was winning the striking battle with Overeem do you? He might have landed more blows but he never really committed to any of them and Overeem never looked hurt or even concerned. Fabricio was only interested in getting the fight to the ground. It’s funny that you mention it though, because Fabricio and his camp seem to think that if he had committed to the strikes with Overeem, he would have won that fight. He told Roy Nelson that he’d better keep his hands up for this one and it’s just terrible logic if Werdum thinks he can strike with anyone because of the Overeem fight. Nelson, TKO, Round 2.
Rainer - This fight is, in a strange way, quite a bit like the main event, albeit, like, a million pounds heavier. Nelson has a well-developed, multi-faceted game, but I think Werdum overtakes him in every dimension. It’s tempting to weigh Werdum’s surprising KO loss to dos Santos in Nelson’s favor, but a closer look at the details--dos Santos’ subsequent UFC run and the fact that it’s Werdum’s only KO loss--kind of deflates its significance. Werdum, Unanimous Decision.
Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce
Earl - Mike Pierce nearly took out Jon Fitch a few fights ago and Kos was still very rattled about getting hit in the eye when fighting Matt Hughes. Koscheck is the favorite in this fight and after watching the Countdown show, I think he is a little too comfy going into this fight. I think we have an upset on our hands. Mike Pierce, Unanimous Decision.
Cory - I think Sneaky Earl has a good point here. We haven’t seen Kos get outwrestled in ages, but I’m willing to bet nothing that it happens this weekend. Pierce - Decision.
Luke - Koscheck is a fantastic wrestler. Since he was so badly outclassed by GSP on the feet, people seem to forget that not only did he take GSP down once, he got to his feet quickly when the champion put him on the mat. As Koscheck said at today’s press conference, with St. Pierre on the mend, the welterweight division is all of a sudden very interesting. There is no way he’s overlooking Pierce and on top of that, Pierce tends to lose to other good wrestlers. Koscheck, Unanimous Decision.
Rainer - Tasty Earl makes some compelling points, but I can’t help but go with the more conventional choice. A Paulo Thiago-like upset is definitely in the wings, but I think Koscheck drops the curtain before Pierce can take center stage. Don’t tell me I bungled that theatre metaphor. The theatre metaphor was good.
Renan Barao vs Scott Jorgensen
Earl - I am very happy this is getting on the main card because it should be a very dynamic fight. Jorgensen is looking to get closer to another crack at Dominick Cruz and Barao is looking to get his 17th consecutive victory. Renen looked fantastic against Brad Pickett and I expect that to continue here. Renen Barao, Submission, Round 2.
Cory - The hype train ends at the speckled feet of the WEC/UFC veteran Young Gun. Jorgy - TKO.
Luke - I think Renan Barao is the man to beat Dominick Cruz. Jorgensen is a tough guy and I think he’s going to prove it, but not in a winning effort. Barao, Unanimous Decision.
Rainer - With superior speed and what I think is a more advanced offensive arsenal, Barao takes this fight. Barao, Unanimous Decision.
Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks
Earl - Ed Herman has been on a tear since returning to the UFC and he should earn himself a step up in competition after this one. Ed Herman, Submission, Round 1.
Cory - Starks hasn’t really shown me much that screams "I am a top-flight Mixed Martial Artist". To be fair, I can’t see Ed with 12 pounds of gold around his waist, either, but I think that he’s closer to the mountain than Cliffy. Herman - Decision.
Luke - Starks is in over his head, I think. Herman, Submission, Round 1.
Rainer - Starks will likely see his only recourse to be top control, but even there I doubt he’ll find much relief against the far more well-equipped Herman. Herman, Submission, Round 2.
Dustin Poirier vs Max Holloway
Earl - Max Holloway stole Jens Pulver’s nickname. He must be taken out. Dustin Poirier, TKO, Round 2.
Cory - Poirier on the other hand looks like he might go places. Max is 4-0 against people I haven’t heard of. Poirier - TKO.
Luke - Dustin Poirier is an excellent prospect. I don’t know too much about Holloway but I can’t imagine that he’ll have much to offer, especially because he the third guy the UFC wanted to put against Poirier. I really want to see the original fight, which was Poirier vs Erik Koch. Poirier, TKO, Round 1.
Rainer - I think it’s worth mentioning that Dustin Poirier, in his first four fights, also fought guys who none of us had likely heard of. Having said that, it’s too much too soon for Holloway. Poirier, TKO, Round 1.
Matt Riddle vs. Henry Martinez
Earl - Riddle is just not a UFC caliber fighter. This is made even stranger by the fact that every fight in his career has been in the UFC. Martinez should put an end to that. Henry Martinez, Unanimous Decision.
Cory - I can’t get the image of Matt Riddle shadowboxing his way to something like 30 missed punches in a row out of my head. I believe it was against Ross Pearson, and man, that was just embarrassing. Martinez - Decision.
Luke - Seeing as Riddle is 5-3 in the UFC, he sure looks like a UFC caliber fighter to me. He might be a little basic, relying on the 1-2 and takedown attempts to sway the judges in his favor, but he has the heart of a lion and I can’t help but think that he’s eventually going to put it all together. What better time than now, against a UFC rookie? Riddle, TKO, Round 2.
Rainer - I’m with Luke on this one. Riddle turned in a pretty ridiculous-looking performance against Pierson, but the idea that he’s a laughable competitor is a meme that’s run its course, I think. Going 5-1-0 in your first six pro fights is nothing to sneeze at, and doing it in the UFC is even more un-sneeze-able. Miller may come with the game plan to once again foil Riddle, but I think in this instance the TUF vet will put his raw power and size advantage to good use. Riddle, Unanimous Decision.
Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa
Earl - Caceres stunned everyone who had ever seen him fight by dominating Cole Escovedo in his Bantamweight debut. Figueroa ought to put a stop to that nonsense here. Edwin Figueroa, TKO, Round 3.
Luke - I like Bruce Leroy. I don’t think he’s a very good fighter, and while it’s very possible that he turned a corner against Escovedo, the fact is that Escovedo has not been good for some time now. Figueroa will hurt him and finish with the choke. Figueroa, Submission, Round 2
Rainer - I have to agree that people have made a bit too much of Caceres’ win over Escovedo who was, after all, 1-4 in his last five heading into that fight. On the other hand, Figueroa’s win over general hard-ass Johnny Bedford speaks pretty well of him. Figueroa, TKO, Round 2
Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope
Earl - Speaking of "how on earth are you still here?" this fight is happening. Matt Brown, TKO, Round 1.
Luke - Matt Brown has had a bad run but he’s been up against better competition every time and he has never looked terrible. It appears that Cope doesn’t have a great chin and I think that Brown will be able to beat a fighter that he should beat in this one. Brown, TKO, Round 1
Rainer - I’ll never understand the appeal of Matt Brown. The nickname, the overblown reputation for toughness, it just rubs me the wrong way. I guess, though, Brown himself isn’t as much to blame as, ahem, certain broadcast teams that want to bill him as some sort of Ultimate Foghorn Leghorn. That aside, Brown should have this wrapped up. Brown, TKO, Round 1.
Dan Stittgen vs.Stephen Thompson
Earl - I’ll say Stephen Thompson, KO, Round 1
Luke - I have to pick the guy who is 62-0 in kickboxing and MMA competition, since he started fighting at 15. Thompson, KO, Round 2
Rainer - I’ve had the pleasure of seeing Stittgen fight a few times live and I have to say that, while his stand up is indeed a little rough, he has a real knack for creating scrambles and locking in the submission. I’ll look for Stittgen to do the same here. Stittgen, Submission, Round 1.
Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper
Earl - Boy, do I ever love me some judo in my MMA. Kuiper is undefeated and he is a finisher, too. Michael Kuiper, TKO, Round 1.
Luke - I think judo will be the future of the takedown game. Another young guy with good judo who fought recently was Jimy Hettes, and he used it very well en route to a dominant decision victory over Nam Phan. Natal doesn’t stand a chance if he can’t get this fight into the position he needs it: On the ground, with him on top. Kuiper keeps his perfect streak alive with. Kuiper, TKO, Round 2
Rainer - Kuiper’s record makes him a pretty attractive pick, but I think he has a couple things going against him. The first, of course, is the "Octagon jitters," which, while sometimes overstated, nevertheless seem to play a part. The second thing is that I’m not really convinced of the strength of the European circuit. I expect Natal to be a beast that Kuiper isn’t, in this instance, quite prepared for. Natal, Unanimous Decision.
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not sure how my first prediction got cut off
But I’m saying mid-round submission for Diaz.
Some of the ones I left off were for a number of reasons, mostly that I’m just fried and couldn’t really compose intelligent thoughts about all of the fighters.
The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com
Thats all that was there
And who needs coherent thoughts anyway?
Writing things on occasion @ Head Kick Legend.
Team Captain for Ruining Your Special Night. That's what we do.
by Earl Montclair on Feb 3, 2012 3:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yes. Werdum won the striking battle against Overeem. Both in significant strikes and overall strikes. Overeem was much more proficient and accurate, though.
http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fights/index/3395
This one, to me, kind of hinges on what kind of shape Werdum shows up in. If he shows up in shape like the Fedor fight, he’s got this but if he shows up like he did against dos Santos, Roy could very well knock his block off.
Writing things on occasion @ Head Kick Legend.
Team Captain for Ruining Your Special Night. That's what we do.
I always thought that their version of "significant"
and mine were very different. He never landed flush or solid with any weight behind a strike. Call it significant if you want, I don’t think it made all that much difference.
The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com
by Cory Braiterman on Feb 3, 2012 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
That fight was such a clusterfuck. Nobody really landed anything major. I wish they both could have lost because nobody really deserved to win.
Writing things on occasion @ Head Kick Legend.
Team Captain for Ruining Your Special Night. That's what we do.
by Earl Montclair on Feb 3, 2012 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
very interesting on the Jorgensen pick.
I have changed my Playground pick to Riddle over Martinez mainly based on Martinez being Lightweight and I think Riddle can control him from the top for 15.
Writing things on occasion @ Head Kick Legend.
Team Captain for Ruining Your Special Night. That's what we do.
by Earl Montclair on Feb 3, 2012 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
Martinez has fought as low as featherweight
He’s taking the fight on a bout 5 days notice.
Jorgensen is getting overlooked majorly, I don’t know why.
"I am the tomato can that crushed your champion, live with it."
I see you changed your pick to Martinez
Did you end up emailing ANS? Did he give you any valuable info?
You go out there and start acting like a terrorist, you're gonna get Osama Bin Laden'd
I wound up changing back
he has good info and it won’t surprise me in the slightest if he wins, but I’m trusting my gut this time.
"I am the tomato can that crushed your champion, live with it."
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