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Title Writing: Numbers for Nerds 5 "UFC Heavyweight Title Runs"

Hello,

This is the fifth installment in a weekly series meant to test the validity of various parts of the MMA gospel using statistics. The first four parts explored submissions and you can find them through the search function, or you can start with the first one here.

Going into UFC 141 there was considerable talk about putting the winner of Donald Cerrone and Nate Diaz into the next lightweight title fight. Cerrone had won four fights in a row and was generating a lot of heat from fans and media alike, despite my feeling that he had really not faced much in terms of high level competition. As for Diaz, he had but a one fight winning streak since returning to the lightweight division following two losses at welterweight. His last fight at lightweight was also a loss, so it's not like he had a long streak prior to moving up and picked up where he left off. I found it interesting that two men with such distinctly different results could both be in line for a title shot and it got me thinking about what really goes into putting someone into a title fight.

I set out to research the many runs to the title that have been made in the short history of the UFC. I considered doing a mega-post today but I thought it might be a little easier on readers to break it up by division. Today I'll be covering the division with the longest history, the heavyweight division. If there is positive feedback I'll probably present the rest of the divisions next week or in the next two weeks, otherwise I'll post those later on down the line.

I enjoyed the Fun with Numbers post that Ranier Lee wrote in the lead up to UFC 140, so I'm going to present my findings in that style:


UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP BY THE NUMBERS
:

31: Bouts fought with a version of the UFC championship on the line, be it the undisputed or the interim championship. 27 times the undisputed championship was up for grabs while four times it was the interim belt.

24: Number of men who have fought for a version of the UFC championship.

16: Men who have won a version of the UFC championship.

2: Number of times Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera and Frank Mir have fought for the interim championship. Noguiera has never fought for the undisputed title, while Mir has fought for the undisputed title once.

9: Number of times Randy Couture and Tim Sylvia have fought for the Heavyweight title, tied for the most of any fighter. Couture is 6-3, while Sylvia is 5-4.

3: Number of times Pedro Rizzo has lost in a Heavyweight title fight, the most of any fighter who has never won the strap.

70: Combined ages of Mark Coleman (32) & Dan Severn (38), the competitors in the first UFC HW title fight.

56: Combined ages of Junior Dos Santos (27) & Cain Velasquez (29), the competitors in the most recent UFC HW title fight.

6: Number of times the belt has been contested between two men with a wrestling background.

6: Number of times the belt has been contested between two men with a striking background.

1: Number of times the belt has been contested between two men with a background in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.

14-11: Record of men from a wrestling background.

12-13: Record of men from a striking background.

5-7: Record of men from a BJJ or submission grappling background.

5: Consecutive appearances in the championship fight, shared by Andrei Arlovski and Randy Couture. Both men went 3-2.

3: Least number of fights before given a shot at the title: Randy Couture & Brock Lesnar.

14: Least number of combined fights between the two competitors: Brock Lesnar & Cain Velasquez.

36: Most fights before given a shot at the title: Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera.

63: Largest number of combined fights between the two competitors: Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera & Tim Sylvia.

16: Longest individual win streak going into a title fight, shared by Tim Sylvia & Jeff Monson.

25: Longest combined win streak going into a title fight: Tim Sylvia & Ricco Rodriguez.

1: Shortest combined win streak going into a title fight: Randy Couture & Pedro Rizzo.

11: Title fights which included an undefeated contender.

6-5: Record of undefeated contenders in those title fights.

7: Number of times one of the men contesting the championship was coming off a loss.

4-7: Worst record of any title challenger: Maurice Smith. Smith won the title twice before losing it. He is the only man to compete for the heavyweight championship with a losing record.

8: Most number of losses on the record of a title contender, shared by Randy Couture & Paul Buentello.

24: Age of the youngest ever heavyweight champion, Josh Barnett.

44: Age of the oldest ever heavyweight champion, Randy Couture.

16: Biggest age difference between the two competitors: Randy Couture & Gabriel Gonzaga.

13: Number of times the Heavyweight championship was won by a man under the age of 30.

18: Number of times the Heavyweight championship was won by a man over the age of 30.

31: Average age of the Heavyweight champion.

17-14: Record of older men vs younger men.

2921: Number of days between first and last Heavyweight title fights: Randy Couture.

24: Most victories by stoppage by any contender going into their title fight: Bas Rutten.

1: Number of title fights where both men had won all their fights by stoppage: Andrei Arlovski vs Paul Buentello.

6: Number of title fights where both fighters were on a win streak of five or more.

14: Number of title fights where both fighters were on a win streak of less than five.

So there is plenty of stuff to chew on here. Just from the last two entries, you can see that the heavyweight division, while being the longest serving division in Mixed Martial Arts, has not always had the most talent to pick from. There has yet to be a truly dominant champion either, as I don't think that anyone would argue that Randy Couture or Tim Sylvia, the two men with the most appearances, were what we would think of as a dominant champion.

As such, the biggest thing that I got from this research is the need for the UFC to build up it's heavyweight ranks. Not to give myself too much credit but when the UFC bought Strikeforce I wrote this Fanpost, which detailed the lack of heavyweights in the UFC and the subsequent boost that Strikeforce's roster of heavys would provide.

I don't like recycled contenders, especially if they haven't gone on long streaks before they get another chance. The Heavyweight division is the place where this occurs the most. I'd love to see the UFC get guys like Big Foot Silva, Fabricio Werdum and Daniel Cormier into the title picture and soon, because the way I see it, after Alistair Overeem, the top two contenders are guys who have already held and lost the title in Frank Mir and Cain Velasquez.

Thanks for reading. Comments or criticisms are welcomed.

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Nice read

You’ve really been churning out an impressive rate of fanposts lately. I’d like to see how the HW numbers you listed stack up against other (deeper) divisions – do you think the no. of title fights where both contenders were riding win streaks of 5 or more would increase significantly? I’m not so sure about that but I’d love to be proven wrong. Here’s hoping you keep doing these!

BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - taking INEPTitude to new levels!

by wonderfulspam on Jan 5, 2012 2:19 PM EST reply actions  

Sup Captn
do you think the no. of title fights where both contenders were riding win streaks of 5 or more would increase significantly?

I don’t think so no. I don’t think the UFC has been around long enough for that.

Now that you’ve mentioned it I’m kind of curious as to how many UFC fights there has ever been period between two guys on 5+ win streaks. They would probably happen more on the undercard, between guys who were compiling their streaks on the regional level.

Seems to me that most guys only ever go on a big streak once in their careers. Once they get to the championship level it’s really hard not to lose one. Yet once they do lose they don’t really drop out of the championship picture. Jim Miller for example. He had his streak stopped but if he wins a couple in a row here he could easily still get one of the next title shots and he’d be going into the fight on a two or three fight win streak.

If you are going to lie to me, then we are going to box

by Luke Nelson on Jan 5, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

Having a long unbeaten streak is nice, but winning, say, 7 of your last 8 or 10 out of your last 12 fights is considered quite a feat as well.

I’ve actually come to look down on fighters with double-digit wins and no losses. Given how rare it is to come across fighters who can stay unbeaten when facing quality opposition, I always question the level of opposition these unbeaten wonderkids have faced.

BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - taking INEPTitude to new levels!

by wonderfulspam on Jan 5, 2012 4:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Sources

Good stuff by you, as usual. Can I ask where you get your numbers? Sherdog? FightMetric?

by Joe Pelusi on Jan 5, 2012 2:36 PM EST reply actions  

For this one I just used Wikipedia and compiled the info in excel.

I think Wiki is an underrated source for fighter records. I find it easier to look at then Sherdog and for stuff like fighter records it seems pretty reliable.

I brought up the wiki entry for every fighter who ever fought for the title, noted their age at the time of the fight, their record at the time of the fight, how many stoppages they’d had in their career, the win streak they were on, etc. etc.

Thanks for the kind words guys

If you are going to lie to me, then we are going to box

by Luke Nelson on Jan 5, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

So simple! But good.

People snark on Wikipedia, but I agree with you it’s a great resource. The collective mind, and all that.

by Joe Pelusi on Jan 11, 2012 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Nice

The combined ages of the first pair of contenders and most recent pair of contenders is really interesting.

I heard somewhere that heavyweight skews older than the other weight classes. Is that a thing?

SquishingMachine, now at HeadKickLegend.com

by Rainer Lee on Jan 5, 2012 4:56 PM EST reply actions  

Makes sense to me but I have never heard of that before...

Look at Overeem, didn’t become a heavyweight until he was in his late twenties.
Jon Jones seems destined to be a heavyweight some day.

There was only one period of time in the UFC heavyweight championship history when there was a string of guys under 30 facing each other: The Arlovski/Sylvia era. One of those guys was involved in a title fight for 10 straight bouts, including five fights in a row where both guys were under 30.

Other than the Velasquez/Dos Santos fight the last time there was a fight between two guys under 30 was back at UFC 53, a stretch of 13 bouts.

If you are going to lie to me, then we are going to box

by Luke Nelson on Jan 5, 2012 5:07 PM EST up reply actions  

hey

shoot me an email when you get the chance (rainerlee@gmail.com).

SquishingMachine, now at HeadKickLegend.com

by Rainer Lee on Jan 6, 2012 1:46 AM EST up reply actions  

Look now though

Miller and Guillard aren’t any more worthy than Diaz

"Every time I hear of this guy , I wonder how he was possible." - Joe DiMaggio

by randallhumpfreeze on Jan 5, 2012 10:20 PM EST reply actions  

uh, what?

SquishingMachine, now at HeadKickLegend.com

by Rainer Lee on Jan 6, 2012 1:45 AM EST up reply actions  

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