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UFC on Fox 2 - Staff Predictions

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The UFC is set to return to Fox with a 3 fight main card with major title implications. Rashad Evans will try once again to earn yet another shot at the Light Heavyweight title that may or may not come to fruition against rising star Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis in the main event. Polarizing Middleweights Chael Sonnen and Michael Bisping will lock horns to determine who will be the next man to climb the mountain of dead bodies that pound for pound king Anderson Silva has built his throne upon and Demian Maia will do battle with Serra-Longo product Chris Weidman in the opening bout. All preliminary fights will be aired LIVE on Fuel so be prepared for a day jam packed with great action from what is, on paper, a fantastic card. Let's get it started with the HKL staff's predictions.

Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis

Earl - This is too much too soon for Phil Davis. Rashad is the #3 Light Heavyweight on the planet and Phil is still very raw. Rashad will use his takedown defense and superior striking to put the first blemish on Mr. Wonderful’s record. Rashad Evans, TKO, Round 2.

Jack - I suspect this will be another decent showing for Rashad as the UFC continues to get us excited for a match with Jon Jones. I believe Rashad can keep ahead with his passable stand up, heavy hands and excellent work rate, but he will struggle to lay and pray on Davis. While Rashad is not difficult to hit, it all hinges on how hard Davis can hit him. Rashad Evans, Unanimous Decision.

Luke - After seeing Rashad Evans link up with Tyrone Spong immediately after leaving Jacksons and after watching Jon Jones struggle with Lyoto Machida until he got him to the mat, I deduced that Evans believes the way he’ll beat the Martian Manhunter is by avoiding the ground at all costs and out pointing him in a kickboxing match. If my sleuthing proves correct, Evans will surely test out the strategy against Davis. I’m not sure this fight will be particularly exciting if that is the case but I do think Evans will execute perfectly. Rashad Evans, Unanimous Decision.

Cory - Ill-timed Sandusky comments aside, I kind of like Phil Davis. I tend to like the the quieter folks that don’t really talk too much. Phil has been a damn solid fighter that’s impressed in various ways. His standup, however, has not been one of those ways. Rashad Evans is one of the more complete MMA fighters at light-heavyweight. He has a very solid top-control game, quick hands and knockout power. I loathe his ground and, and his in-ring crotch grabs are eye-rollingly annoying. Davis just doesn’t have the standup to hang with Rashad on the feet, and I’m going to guess that much of the fight is spent there, as so often happens with two wrestlers. The only caveat I’m going to put in here is this, Rashad has shown suspect cardio throughout the years. If this goes into deep waters, Davis could eventually overwhelm a tired Evans. Evans, TKO.

Star-divide

Michael Bisping vs. Chael Sonnen

Earl - This is the fight that should have been scheduled all along to get the new top contender to Anderson Silva’s throne. Chael should be dominant here because his wrestling will keep Bisping from opening up with his strikes as much as he did against guys like Leben, Miller and Rivera. Chael is going to brutalize Mike here and it is not going to be pretty. It will be beautiful. Chael Sonnen, Unanimous Decision.

Jack - It’s no secret that Bisping is a well protected fighter but he is coming off the most legitimate win of his career over Jason Miller. The fact that this fight is not taking place in the UK should give readers a hint of what Joe Silva expects to happen. Chael will almost definitely take Bisping down at will and hit him harder than expected in the stand up when Bisping is worried about sprawling. The rest will be vintage Chael Sonnen, lots of big punches but not much damage, perhaps a late stoppage if he’s really on form. Chael Sonnen, Unanimous Decision.

Luke - I wasn’t sure Miller was the most legitimate win of Bisping’s career but a look back at his schedule shows that it just might be. That doesn’t bode well for his chances against a world class fighter like Chael but the truth is that Bisping is a bad match-up for Sonnen. Bisping has calculated stand up, making takedowns difficult. He also has good defensive jiu jitsu and gets back to his feet very well. Sonnen is at his best when he can take you down and work from the guard. When forced to work hard to keep you down, he opens himself up for submissions. Bisping will give us one "oh my!!" moment and catch Sonnen in something but I think the American will survive to get that second fight with Silva. Chael Sonnen, Unanimous Decision.

Cory - Ya know what... I’m gonna do it. I’ll go with the upset here. Sonnen’s submission defense is bad. Historically bad. Nearly every time he’s gone against a solid submission grappler, he’s tapped. He can outwrestle people. He hits somewhat hard on the feet. Bisping is not a superior submission grappler. However, he isn’t stupid either. He knows what works for him and who he’s facing. If he isn’t a dimwit and lets Sonnen control the cage the way Henderson did, I can see him realizing his best avenue is through Jiu Jitsu. If Bisping can outwork Sonnen, I’ll be surprised. If he takes an arm and bends it in ways it isn’t supposed to go, I won’t be. Bisping, Submission.

Demian Maia vs. Chris Weidman

Earl - In his quest to improve his stand up game, Demian Maia has seemingly forgotten that he is a world class BJJ practitioner. The man who had amazing grappling displays against Jason MacDonald and Chael Sonnen has seemingly vanished and that makes me sad. Weidman is on a serious roll right now but, especially on short notice, he is in the same boat as Phil Davis on this night. Demian Maia, Submission, Round 3.

Jack - Calling it now, Maia surprises everyone with improved stand up again! As this is a late replacement, and Maia was already training for a striker, I suspect we’ll see Maia work Weidman over on the ground - but Weidman may be strong enough on the ground to hold out. Demian Maia, Submission, Round 2.

Luke - I’m going with the youngster in this one. As Earl points out, Maia has not shown off his remarkable grappling game in years, having spent much of his time working on his striking game. I think he’ll be surprised by the strength and technical acumen of Weidman, who puts Maia on the ground and keeps him there for the entire three round fight. Chris Weidman, Unanimous Decision.

Cory - Weidman is a good fighter. He might be really good. Demian Maia IS really good. He’s been with some of the best in the sport and doesn’t lose very often. Maia, Decision.

Evan Dunham vs. Nik Lentz

Earl - Nik Lentz is looking to rebound from his loss to Mark Bocek and he has a tough match-up in Dunham. Lentz has been dabbling in exciting fights recently but if he tries it against Evan, he is going to get busted up. Evan Dunham, TKO, Round 2.

Jack - Would love to see Lentz lose here, I cannot stand lay ‘n’ pray. Dunham should be able to stuff the takedowns and use better stand up to beat Lentz down. Evan Dunham, TKO, Round 1.

Luke - I was disappointed in Lentz after his fight with Bocek. He essentially spent the entire fight trying to secure a guillotine choke on Bocek that clearly wasn’t happening and he looked frustrated and surprised when the judges gave Bocek the nod. Top control will beat submission attempts from the bottom every time Nik, even in Canada. Lentz doesn’t have anything for Dunham here. Evan Dunham, TKO, Round 2.

Cory - There’s no real convincing argument you can give me at this point that would make me think that Lentz wins this fight more than 1 or 2 times out of 10, tops. Dunham, TKO.

Mike Russow vs. Jon Olav Einemo

Earl - Mike Russow is seeking his 11th straight victory against JOE. Einemo was in a wild brawl with Dave Herman in his first Octagon appearance. Russow has crazy power (especially in his hammerfists) and should take this one. Mike Russow, TKO, Round 1.

Jack - As physically unimposing as he is, it’s hard to pick against a guy who is on a double digit winning streak since the death of PRIDE. It is in Einemo’s interest to beat up Russow’s legs and body early to remove the chance of getting caught down the line, then look for a submission. Mike Russow, KO, Round 2.

Luke - Could everyman Mike Russow actually win four fights in a row in the UFC Heavyweight division? I was thinking he could, but watching his interview with Ariel Helwani and realizing that he only trained full time for one month before this fight has me thinking otherwise. Jon Olav Einemo looked good against Dave Herman but he probably should have gone to his grappling game a little sooner. He’ll do that this time. Jon Olav Einemo, Submission, Round 1.

Cory - I am in nearly perfect agreement with Luke. Einemo, Submission.


Cub Swanson vs. George Roop

Earl - George has been steadily improving and I pay for it every time I bet against him, save the Hominick fight. I have learned my lesson. George Roop, Unanimous decision.

Jack - Roop uses his range to beat up Swanson, knocks him out with a flying knee or head kick and everyone starts talking about Roop vs Aldo. George Roop, KO, Round 1.

Luke - Roop is coming off of two very good performances, despite losing to Hatsu Hioki in his last fight. Swanson is not that great and Roop should dispatch him with ease. George Roop, KO, Round 1.

Cory - I would not be surprised at all if this is the fight that gets Cub Swanson cut from the UFC. Roop, TKO.


Charles Oliveira vs. Eric Wisely

Earl - "C DB O" is dropping down to Featherweight where he belongs. He is going to be in beast mode. Charles Oliveira, Submission, Round 2.

Jack - On most cards there is an upset. I like this as the upset of UFC on Fox 2. Oliveira keeps coming in and looking as if he buys his own hype. Don’t play guard against Jim Miller or Donald Cerrone; should be pretty obvious to a guy with the talent of Oliveira. Eric Wisely, TKO, Round 1.

Luke - If Charles Oliveira loses, could it really be considered an upset? He’s lost his last two outings and didn’t look particularly great against Donald Cerrone. I guess the fact that he’s dropping down a division to face a newcomer to the UFC would make it qualify as an upset. Wait, why did I just spend two minutes working that out? Charles is going to win. Charles Oliveira, Submission, Round 1

Cory - Eric Wisely strikes me as a tailor made individual to get Charles Oliveira back into the win column. Unless he suffers from a bad weight cut going down to featherweight for the first time, South Bronx (get it, he’s from South America), should roll right over Wisely. Oliveira, KO.

Michael Johnson vs. Shane Roller

Earl - Coin flip, I guess. Michael Johnson, Unanimous Decision.

Jack - I’m going with Roller, just because I feel he’s tougher. Shane Roller, Unanimous Decision.

Luke - Michael Johnson is a disappointment to me. I felt he could have done more against Jonathan Brookins in the TUF final and I also thought he had the fight IQ to avoid getting subbed by Paul Sass. If he can’t beat Roller, he doesn’t belong in the UFC. Michael Johnson, Unanimous Decision.

Cory - Michael Johnson has done very little to make me think he’ll succeed against the upper echelon of the division. Shane has already failed against the upper echelon (and T.J. Grant), but I think he’s just better than MJ. Roller, Decision.

Joey Beltran vs. Lavar Johnson

Earl - I love a Joey Beltran fight. I hope the UFC never cuts him. Lavar Johnson is making his UFC debut on a 2 fight losing streak. Sadly for him, it will be 3 after he gets MEXICUTED! Joey Beltran, TKO Round 2.

Jack - Gonna go with Beltran. Joey Beltran, TKO, Round 1.

Luke - Joey Beltran has embraced his role as a UFC gatekeeper, according to his pre-fight interview with Ariel Helwani. Lavar Johnson would have had much better luck if he had tried to get into the UFC through a side door somewhere, instead of through a cage with Beltran inside it. Joey Beltran, TKO, Round 1.

Cory - I can’t believe that the Tigers are going to be paying a 35-year old, probably broken-down husk of Prince Fielder 20 million dollars+ in the year 2020. They’re gonna be hating life and … oh wait, Joey Beltran vs. Lavar Johnson? Well, they both have a middling record, the difference is that Joey has been losing to the likes of Pat Barry and Matt Mitrione while Lavar has swum in shallower waters. Joey Beltran, TKO.

Chris Camozzi vs. Dustin Jacoby

Earl - This fight will happen. Dustin Jacoby, Unanimous Decision.

Jack - Camozzi has a significant edge in experience over the young finisher. Should be a decent scrap at any rate. Chris Camozzi, Unanimous Decision.

Luke - I like Camozzi. He was cut after going 2-1 in his first go-round with the UFC, then was brought back after a single win. Weird. Dustin Jacoby was completely unimpressive in his UFC debut against Clifford Starks and I don’t think much of his chances here. Chris Camozzi, Unanimous Decision.

Cory - In my due diligence on looking into young Mr. Jacoby, I was able to find very little about him other than he trains with Robbie Lawlor. That isn’t really a great indication of anything. Tons of midwestern prospects have flamed out, and quite frankly, Jacoby has shown me nothing so far to indicate that he won’t join that long list. Camozzi, Submission.


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I really hope Cory is right, Bisping by submission would just be the funniest outcome possible.

by forkboy on Jan 27, 2012 9:37 AM EST reply actions  

Nearly every time he’s gone against a solid submission grappler, he’s tapped.

That’s just not true, even though it is a common view of Sonnen’s grappling. After the Maia fight, where Maia hit that crazy toss right into the triangle position, it took more than ten rounds of playing in the guards of very talented BJJ black belts before he got caught again. Dan Miller is a better BJJ player than Bisping, with brutal chokes, and Sonnen got out of multiple guillotines and avoided armbars and leg locks calmly for 15 minutes. Marquardt is another BJJ black belt with better chops than Bisping, and again Sonnen just calmly worked through any danger to remain on top and hammering away. Silva is a better BJJ player than Bisping and had it been a three-rounder like tomorrow he loses in dominant fashion, too, with Sonnen showing patient and technically sound escapes many times in that fight, too.

Sonnen of old was a submission waiting to happen on the ground. Sonnen of late has worked really hard to patch up those holes and to drill his escapes and it’s shown in his performances inside the cage.

Just Blog Guy: http://JustBlogGuy.wordpress.com/
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by JustBlogGuy on Jan 27, 2012 1:10 PM EST reply actions  

Miller is not as physical as I think Bisping CAN be

Also arm chokes generally haven’t been his downfall – count the triangles, there’s a ton of them. Marquardt actually nearly tapped him at least once in a bad guillotine and also cut the hell out of him. I don’t think the word “calm” can possibly describe that fight. He’s gotten BETTER, but he’s still losing to some of them (Silva).

Let’s put it this way, I’m not betting that Bisping wins, but I’ll take him in the picks, because I can easily see it happening.

The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com

by Cory Braiterman on Jan 28, 2012 2:17 AM EST up reply actions  

also there IS a reason I said "nearly" and not just "every"

:P

The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com

by Cory Braiterman on Jan 28, 2012 2:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, that wasn’t so much directly at you as it’s not entirely unreasonable Bisping could make something happen, more in general with that quote has a jumping off point. After last weekend there was so much talk of “Sonnen and Guillard tied for worst submission defense,” and that is a laughable assessment. It’s his weak area, still, but it is definitely much improved from his early days when he was a tap waiting to happen in a BJJ player’s guard.

Just Blog Guy: http://JustBlogGuy.wordpress.com/
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by JustBlogGuy on Jan 28, 2012 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

“MEXICUTED”
Line of the day

by ElvisIceman on Jan 27, 2012 2:54 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

This fight will happen.

I couldn’t agree more.

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by T.C. Engel on Jan 27, 2012 5:51 PM EST reply actions  

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