UFC on FOX 2: Rashad Evans And The Smoke And Mirrors
I honestly don't understand why everyone seems convinced Rashad Evans will win this Saturday at UFC on Fox 2 against highly touted light heavyweight prospect Phil Davis. I'm not trying to say Evans isn't talented, he's clearly one of the best LHW's in the world, but so is Phil Davis.
Rashad Evans has accomplished quite a bit in MMA, having won the UFC's light heavyweight title, but I don't think the level of competition he's faced inside the octagon warrants his current ranking. Although his only career loss is respectfully to Lyoto Machida, in my opinion he's yet to defeat anyone of true relevance outside of maybe Thiago Silva.
I won't go through his entire record inside the UFC because up until his draw against Tito Ortiz at UFC 73, he really hadn't faced anyone worth mentioning. After the draw, he went on a three fight win streak on his way to claiming the light heavyweight belt, defeating Michael Bisping, Chuck Liddell, and Forrest Griffin for the title. These are popular names to have on your record, but aren't all that impressive when you read between the lines.
Michael Bisping (now a middleweight) was clearly under sized and out muscled, yet still managed to make it a close fight between the two. Chuck Liddell should have been retired at this point in his career, and Forrest Griffin, despite winning the championship himself, really hasn't ever been an elite fighter in the division.
After losing the title in brutal fashion to Machida, he's since gone on another three fight win streak defeating Thiago Silva, Rampage Jackson, and Tito Ortiz. Certainly these names are a lot more impressive than his first run to the title, but once again these are not names that should warrant his #2 ranking in the division.
It's hard to say anything bad about the win over Thiago Silva, it was an impressive performance and showed he has the heart to battle through adversity. His win over Jackson was also impressive, but let's be real here. He was fighting Jackson the movie star, not the fighter, and was again rocked badly. I really don't think anything needs to be said about the win over Ortiz.
I'm not trying to discredit Evans' wins, only put them in a more realistic light. He's been made out to be something he's not, and his record seems to indicate this. Yes, he's a talented fighter with the kind of wrestling credentials that could give anyone problems, but he also possess serious holes in his game, has spent a great deal of time on the shelf the past few years, and hasn't been facing consistently difficult opposition.
But back to his fight with Phil Davis, this will be the first time he's faced a wrestler with similar (better) credentials on the mat. Although Davis is at a serious disadvantage on the feet, he could potentially pose some problems for Evans, and this isn't being acknowledged by the MMA community enough. Will Rashad Evans win Saturday night? Probably, but Phil Davis has a good chance of pulling off the upset here, and deserves some credit.
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Before the Anderson Silva incident
Forrest WAS an elite fighter. Sadly, Anderson broke him mentally and he hasnt recovered. that is Evans’ best win imo, the Rampage win is not far behind.
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I don't buy that.
Forrest defeated an out of shape Hua, and barely got by Rampage with leg kicks. He has more heart than just about anyone, but I don’t think he’s elite.
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by Chad Raynard on Jan 25, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
wins are wins dude
all that really counts in the end is record, and he’s still the only person in the world other than Bones with wins over both Rampage and Rua.
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by Cory Braiterman on Jan 25, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
Wins are wins doesn't say enough,
considering both opponents were at low points in their careers when he defeated them. I’ll give Forrest credit for the win over Rampage, because he completely neutralized him with those leg kicks. But the Shogun win seems like a fluke, and the second fight confirms this to me.
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by Chad Raynard on Jan 25, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
That works both ways then
because Forrest looked completely different in that first fight than the second as well.
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by Cory Braiterman on Jan 25, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
agreed
everyone says shogun was shit in the first fight, but Griffin was the shit for their second fight. In interviews before that fight he talked about how hard it was to get motivated, he wasnt the same
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whoa whoa WHOA
in my opinion he’s yet to defeat anyone of true relevance outside of maybe Thiago Silva.
Chuck? Rampage? Forrest? The only people left at LHW he hasn’t faced and/or beaten in the top10 of the division are Davis, Shogun, Lyoto and Jones.
Chuck Liddell should have been retired at this point in his career
??? He just came off of the unanimous decision win over Wanderlei and was 21-5 going into that fight.
I’m NOT a ‘Shad fan at all, but I have to agree pretty much unanimously that he’s top5 and almost assuredly top3 based upon achievements and career record.
I certainly think that Davis has some avenues to win, as you’ll see when our picks article goes up, but Rashad has done enough in his career to earn a top slot in the division. Completely disagree with you on this.
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by Cory Braiterman on Jan 25, 2012 2:55 PM EST reply actions
You left quite a bit out of your argument here.
I gave reasons why the wins over Chuck, Rampage, and Forrest weren’t overely impressive. Decent wins, but nothing to warrant his place in the division. Hendo, Gustaffson, and Davis all should be ranked a lot higher than Evans IMO. But rankings are always a tough thing to discuss.
And sure, Liddell beat Silva, but before that he lost Jackson with a brutal KO, and Jardine (LOL)
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by Chad Raynard on Jan 25, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
GUSTAFSON?!
THE GUY WHO’S BEST WINS ARE HAMILL AND MATYUSHENKO?! Are you insane? Seriously, who’s this pod person and what have you done with Chad.
The only way rankings can actually work are if they’re reflective of actual record. Otherwise they’re just a bunch of random nonsense about who you think might win in the future.
HE HELD THE BELT CHAD! HE HAS WINS OVER FOUR PEOPLE WHO HELD THE BELT
HOLY FARTBALLS
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by Cory Braiterman on Jan 25, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Are you insane? Seriously, who’s this pod person and what have you done with Chad.
I wouldn’t ever take my posts too seriously, I like getting people worked up and talking.
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by Chad Raynard on Jan 25, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
Yup, he did all that,
but he hasn’t been active at all in the last few years. I really don’t like rankings because they rarely account for this kind of stuff. Look at how many times they have both fought in the last few years, and you see a serious divide.
In the last three years, Evans has fought 4 times. Gustafsson on the other hand has fought seven times in the same time frame, has finished all his opponents, and only has one career loss to Davis. Yes, Evans has bigger names, but Hamil and Matyushenko aren’t that bad either.
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and I'm not trying to say any of these guys are better than Rashad.
Only that maybe Rashad is being given a little too much credit for his wins.
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by Chad Raynard on Jan 25, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
I give Rashad credit for destroying Chuck’s chin for all of eternity with that overhand right. I know Rich officially retired Chuck, but that bomb from Evans was the career ender.
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by Earl Montclair on Jan 25, 2012 4:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions
While I agree that some of Evans' wins aren't as impressive as the names would suggest
Saying that “Hendo, Gustaffson, and Davis all should be ranked a lot higher than Evans” is utter nonsense.
Going through these guys’ UFC wins (and in Hendo’s case, going back 4 years) in a similar manner to your breakdown of Evans’ wins:
Phil Davis:
Nogeira – Nog is over the hill and besides, it took Davis a round before he got going
Boetsch – undersized, now at 185
Wallace – went 0-3 in the UFC, his two other defeats are to guys that are now 185’ers
Gustafsson – still very green at this point
Stann – undersized, now at 185
Alexander Gustafsson:
Matyushenko – over the hill and never elite
Hamill – never elite
Te Huna – not even close to elite
Diabaté – is less comfortable on the ground than a fish
Davis – a loss
Hamman – undersized, now at 185
Dan Henderson:
Shogun – somewhat over the hill, should perhaps have been a draw
Fedor – over the hill
Feijao – not elite
Babalu – over the hill
Shields – a loss
Bisping – not elite
Franklin – split decision win
Palhares – not elite, certainly not in 2008
Anderson Silva – a loss
Rampage – a loss
Wanderlei – good win
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like in my earlier comments,
you don’t take into account the amount of times each fighter has been on the shelf between fights. I think the top of the heap at LHW all have similar records, some decent wins against mediocre fighters. The only two that stand out by a large margin to me are Hendo and Jones (obviously). I think Davis, Gustafsson, and Evans are very even, but both Gustafsson and Evans have been very active over the last few years while Evans hasn’t at all.
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by Chad Raynard on Jan 25, 2012 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
both Gustafsson and Davis*
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by Chad Raynard on Jan 25, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
I almost did the same thing wonderfulspam did with Dan Henderson...
glad I read his comment first.
Just about the only point in your post that has any relevance to Saturday is that Rashad hasn’t fought much lately. The stuff about him not being worthy of his status based on his record is rubbish, I’m sorry to have to say. Once you reach the top of a weak division, (205 is the weakest division in MMA in my opinion) fights are hard to come by.
Sure, Gustafsson and Davis have fought a lot over the past two years while Evans has sat out, but I mean, what would Rashad have done to Cyrille Diabate or James Te Huna, or Tim Boetsch? And those are fights that couldn’t possibly have been made, considering where Rashad is.
He is at the top of the rankings because he earned that place. Davis is truly the first “makes sense” fight to come along for him in a long time.
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This is what you wrote in response to Cory above:
I gave reasons why the wins over Chuck, Rampage, and Forrest weren’t overely impressive. Decent wins, but nothing to warrant his place in the division. Hendo, Gustaffson, and Davis all should be ranked a lot higher than Evans IMO.I agree that by “what have you done for me lately?” standards Rashad should be ranked below Hendo, but you can’t just move the goalposts after spending an entire article discrediting Rashad’s wins.
Also, if Hendo, Gustafsson and Davis should be ranked “a lot” higher than Evans, does that mean Evans doesn’t even make your top 10?
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by wonderfulspam on Jan 25, 2012 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think there can be any doubt that Hendo should be ranked higher
If only because inactivity has killed Evans. Since beating #4 Jackson back in May of 2010 he has fought and won only once beating a late replacement #14 Tito Ortiz.
During that same span Hendo has faced and beaten #17 Babalu, #10 Calvacante, #2 Rua and
- HW Fedor.
If we want to go back 3 years, to 2009, he is 3-1 while Hendo is 6-1 and 4-0 at LHW.
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I actually don't think it's completely clear cut that Hendo should be ranked higher.
While those numbers beside the names he’s beaten give the appearance of quality fighters…
- Babalu is well old and worn down
- a good argument can be made that Fedor is way, way past his days at the top
- Cavalcante stumbled into a title fight with King Mo due to the weak division he was in and it’s generally accepted that Mo wasn’t at his best for that fight…
…leaving the shell of Shogun Rua as the only top guy he’s beaten since leaving the UFC.
Now I do realize this is a pessimistic way of looking at Hendo’s recent results but even still, I’ve got he and Rashad at about even right now.
If there was no fight with Davis coming up for Evans would you say “Oh, Dan deserves Jones first, no questions asked”?
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We could say the same about Rashad
Thiago Silva was injured and paid off to stay on as a main event for UFC 108, Rampage was coming back from a 15 month layoff and shooting a movie, and Tito was not only over-the-hill, but a last minute replacement.
I think Hendo deserves to be ranked higher than Rashad for his recent string of stronger victories, but I don’t think anyone should be replacing Evans as #1 contender. In fact I don’t even think he should be fighting Davis but should instead be getting ready for Jones.
First of all, it is the big money fight at LHW right now, and this called prizefighting for a reason. Secondly, part of the reason Hendo has leaped him in the polls is that he’s been getting screwed by poor scheduling by Zufffa. The should not be promising him title fights after victories only to try and cram in a Jones fight, screwing up any chance of getting Evans a matchup within a timely fashion. The whole division is now backlogged, with Hendo now being forced to either wait and not blow a title fight until later in the year, or risking a loss just to stay busy. The over-40 strikeforce champ who was awarded a victory over Rua (it could be argued draw but it’s a win on the record books) should not be waiting a year for a shot.
The whole thing has been poorly handled.
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Nice post.
In fact I don’t even think he should be fighting Davis but should instead be getting ready for Jones.
First of all, it is the big money fight at LHW right now, and this called prizefighting for a reason. Secondly, part of the reason Hendo has leaped him in the polls is that he’s been getting screwed by poor scheduling by Zufffa. The should not be promising him title fights after victories only to try and cram in a Jones fight, screwing up any chance of getting Evans a matchup within a timely fashion.
I agree whole-heartedly with this.
In fact, I’m not convinced the UFC even wants to make Evans/Jones, or at least has ever wanted to up to this point. Hand-gate was strange and then the way Machida got the Jones fight while Evans was free was even stranger. Do you think they purposely avoided putting the fight on?
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Conspiracy theory
UFC wanted to postpone the fight to give Rashad (and by extension, Jones) the Fox treatment in the hopes of making Jones the new main PPV draw.
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by wonderfulspam on Jan 25, 2012 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know
I think they’ve been intent on getting Jones fights as soon as possible so they cram then in whenever they open up. Also wonder of there isn’t a message to Evans there for waiting for title fights instead of taking what they offer.
I do suspect that Jones ducked Evans in the beginning. Not from fear, but just to screw with him. A little gamesmanship on his part.
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by John Nash on Jan 25, 2012 8:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I do suspect that Jones ducked Evans in the beginning. Not from fear, but just to screw with him. A little gamesmanship on his part.
Waiting it out isn’t a bad idea either. I think Rashad could give Jones a fight but he only has so much time left before he starts to get caught, which is to say the knockouts are coming to everyone in his age group sooner rather than later.
Yada yada, no fights but he’s still training to fight, still been down there in Florida with elite athletes sparring. Tyrone Spong.
I’m partially saying this in case Davis lands a head kick at the beginning on the fight, laying Evans next to Cain Velasquez and Jon Fitch as the third big star getting blasted away after inactivity. (Tito Ortiz gets included under "sparring")
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by Luke Nelson on Jan 25, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
"Nog is over the hill and besides, it took Davis a round before he got going"
First of all, Davis won the first round on 2 of the judges cards. Secondly, Nog just beat Tito more emphatically than Rashad did.
Politics is just one big ass blast.
To your first point, that is true but does not mean that Davis was impressive during the first round. And your second point is a MMath fallacy; Ellenberger and Condit stopping Shields and Hardy respectively does not expose GSP as a lesser fighter, and in any case I thought Rashad’s beatdown of Ortiz was pretty emphatic considering any sort of ring rust Rashad might be dealing with.
Mostly though, I was just trying to do the whole “discredit opponents to make a point” thing – Nog is a very solid win for Davis. It is, however, really the only meaningful win he’s got.
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by wonderfulspam on Jan 25, 2012 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
Wasn't using mmamath
Just stating an observation.
" Ellenberger and Condit stopping Shields and Hardy respectively does not expose GSP as a lesser fighter"
That is debatable. I wouldn’t say Condit stopping Hardy exposes gsp as a lesser fighter because gsp wanted to grapple with Hardy. However, Ellenberger and GSP both wanted to stand with Shields. For arguements sake, let’s say Shields’ father’s death didn’t affect him. The fact that Ellenberger handled him on the feet while GSP was wildly swinging overhand right after overhand right does say something about their skill sets.
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Phil Davis...
Could someday contend for the title, but a snowball has a better chance lasting 5 minutes in hell than Phil Davis does winning this fight against Rashad Evans – who I think is one of the very, very, few men who MAY conquer MT.BONES….
The only point I can agree with here is that Rashad has been rather inactive, tho his performance against Tito was great.
Chuck had only lost two fights since his title reign going in to the fight with Rashad. It was Rashad was only the second to KO him and start the trend.
Bisping and Rashad were both undefeated LHW’s in their fight, and it was 4 years ago.
Forrest was the freakin champion, regardless of what you think about his fight with Rampage. And, yes, Rampage was probably not exactly in his best shape when he fought Rashad, but it’s still a win over a top fighter.
And, in general, I’d say the consensus is that Rashad is rightly favored, not that Davis has no chance at victory.
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You have some double standards going on in your post. If you are going to denigrate Rashad’s win over Chuck because Chuck was on the decline of his career, you should also admit that he beat Forrest Griffen at a time when Forrest was the most dominant man in the most stacked division over the course the previous 12 months.

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