UFC on FX 1 - Staff Predictions

so E-Mo is sticking. That sucks.

That’s an odd pick. The dude’s got 2 subs in 21 victories (no, submission to exhaustion or knees doesn’t count).

shame on the other staff for being late. SHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAME

Scarlet A. don it.

Somehow I’m getting left out of these. My e-mail doesn’t seem to be on the group list, but I just created a new gmail, LukeNelsonMMA@gmail.com, to use for all MMA related correspondence. So you can reach me there to get my predictions.

In the mean time I’ll just put my predictions here.

Melvin Guillard vs. Jim Miller

I originally was going to go with Guillard, by first round TKO, on this one. Miller looked spectacular against Shalorus, only to look very ordinary against Bendo. After learning that he was suffering from a kidney infection during that fight, I can understand why he looked subpar. He should be focused. Guillard should be focused too but this would be a tough fight for him under the best of circumstances. Coming off a quick loss plus leaving Jackson’s gym for the fun house that seems to be Imperial Athletics? Not good.

Miller by Submission. Round 1

Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer

Neer hasn’t lost since Eddie Alvarez put the rear naked on him way back at Bellator 17 (May, 2010), a string of five fights. The competition hasn’t been great though. During the same time period, Ludwig has but two fights, struggling through injuries to post fairly impressive victories in the depths of the UFC welterweight division. I say impressive because his takedown defense was sharp and he was much better than his opponents on the feet. Neer will make it difficult but I think Ludwig keeps the fight on the feet for the majority of two rounds and get’s a tough W.

Ludwig by unanimous decision

Mike Easton vs. Jared Papazian

Papazian looks like he is a tough guy who has no problem taking a beating. I loved the story he told this week about confronting a high school locker room thief, only to catch a beating from a group of the ruffian’s older friends. It led him to MMA, which in turn has led him to Mike Easton and what is sure to be another beating. I think Papazian takes it like a champ and forces Easton to work for all 15 minutes.

Easton by unanimous decision

Christian Morecraft vs. Pat Barry

It makes sense to think that Pat Barry is going to get submitted here but Morecraft isn’t going to win any awards for “best gameplanner” and he also isn’t nearly as athletic as Barry, which means he’s going to have to work pretty hard to get a takedown, leaving him little time to work for a sub. I think Barry avoids trouble just long enough to land a telling punch or two.

Barry by knockout, Round 2.

Jorge Rivera vs. Eric Shafer

This is the easiest fight on the card for me. The UFC loves guys like Rivera, stand up fighters who aren’t shy about fighting against better competition. He’s fought Michael Bisping, Chris Leben, Martin Kampmann and Kendall Grove, basically when each of those guys were at their peaks. He is ready to call it a career and almost did but I think he wants to go out on a win and the UFC seems happy to oblige in giving him Eric Schafer, loser of 3 straight UFC fights and in general not a very good fighter.

Rivera by unanimous decision

Kamal Shalorus vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

This one was a tough one to pick. Newcomer or veteran? I can’t help but think that the veteran, Shalorus, is closer to the end of his UFC run than the beginning. Nurmagomedov, on the other hand, is making his promotional debut and has a 16-0 record. There is talk that his record is a little bit padded but can he really have been brought into the UFC strictly based on demolishing cans? That seems un-like Joe Silva, who has let plenty of other top European prospects go to Bellator and Strikeforce. If he’s here, he’s here for a reason.

Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision

Charlie Brenneman vs. Daniel Roberts

This one was another tough pick. Brenneman has faced the better competition and has the biggest win between the two, a short notice UD over Rick Story. Roberts trains with one of the top camps based on recent performance, Cesar Gracie JJ. If you’ve read my series “Ranking the Fight Camps”, you’ll know that I put stock into where a fighter trains. In this case though, I haven’t seen enough from Roberts to be confident he can beat a guy with a basic top control wrestling game, which is what Brenneman is going to throw at him.

Brenneman by unanimous decision

Fabricio Camoes vs. Tommy Hayden

Camoes is a third degree black belt under Royler Gracie. That is some serious jiu jitsu skill. He was submitted by Kurt Pellegrino in his last fight with the UFC, a high paced back and forth that saw Camoes get dropped on his head before succumbing to a RNC. He’s fighting an undefeated young buck in Hayden who has never faced a big name before. Hayden is also a submission fighter, so the advantages are with Camoes here. Unless Hayden pushes the pace relentlessly, he’ll be handed his first loss.

Camoes by submission, Round 1.

Daniel Pineda vs. Pat Schilling

Pineda has all the experience here, having fought 22 times, all professionally. Schilling has fought 5 guys with a god awful total record of something like 14-31. That being said, it’s taken him just 10:03 to dispatch of them, all but one by submission. Pineda has lost six times by tapout himself, which makes this much closer than it would appear. I’m going to go with the crowd on this one and take Pineda, but the fight will be a close contest decided by the scorecards.

Pineda by unanimous decision.

Joseph Sandoval vs. Nick Denis

Denis is a good Canadian boy with a ton of power. His one big fight experience? 19 seconds of ring time before he was knocked out by Marlon Sandro. He’s dropped down to 135 since then. Sandoval came up undefeated through “Shark Fights”, a regional promotion that has gained some noteriety by putting on fights featuring some of the more prominent Zuffa cast-offs in recent years such as Keith Jardine, Paul Daley, Gerald Harris and Bobby Lashley. The fact that they feel the need to grab those guys suggests to me a belief that their home-grown talent isn’t talented enough. Sandoval basically proved as much in his UFC debut, a quick TKO loss to Walel Watson. Shark Fights might be taking another Zuffa cast off in after this one, only it’ll be one of their own.

Denis by knockout, Round 2.