DREAM 17: The Corpse of Japanese MMA Still Twitches with the BW GP, and Other Relevant Bouts

Well, you, dear reader, may not care about Japanese MMA. But I do, and I'm the one with the binary pedestal. So besides Jones vs. Rampage, we're also getting DREAM 17 this weekend. The event finally introduces the three five minute rounds that hasn't been a part of Japanese MMA, and so it'll be interesting to see what, if any, effect this has on the fights themselves. Japanese MMA may be dead, but as the recent Shooto card proved, it still occasionally twitches.

Shinya Aoki vs. Rob McCullough

Aoki's brainfarts are few and far between. For as much as people like to draw him as a one dimensional grappler (which he sort of is), and pretend a strong wrestler with good striking will always beat him (which his victories over Kawajiri, Alvarez, and JZ proved over and over is not the case), he's still one of the most reliable fighters when it comes predicting the early submission.

You could argue that if a cross dressing kickboxer with minimal MMA experience could beat him, so could "Razor" Rob, but I don't see it happening. Rob's not a cross dresser, and at least "Jienotsu" Nagashima is a respected K-1 fighter. McCullough is neither of those, so I'll go with Aoki by round 1 RNC.

Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Joachim Hansen

The two first met in 2006 at Shooto: The Victory of the Truth (huh?), and what promised to be a dynamic matchup ended in one of the loudest scrotum slaps in MMA history. A leg kick from Hansen accidentally reached Tatsuya's balls, and the tadpoles within were never to be heard from again. It was enough to stop the fight. Let's hope the rematch doesn't suffer the same fate.

What's crazy is that both men were at one time, consensus top 10 LW's: hell, Kawajiri was essentially #1 at one point (when the UFC had no LW division of course). Kawajiri looked great in his last fight, but he seems to be the guy who just can't win the big fight. Even worse, against Melendez, he looked like the guy who didn't deserve the big fight. He's still a quality fighter though. Although how the weight cut (he's moving down to FW, which seems unreasonable when you look at Kawa's build) will affect him is anyone's guess. 

Hansen, meanwhile, seems to be deteriorating despite his modest resurgence with wins over Ishida, Aziz, and Tokoro. I expect this fight to go the way it would have the first time: with Kawajiri dominating with top control. Tatsuya seems destined to slug it out in the big fights, where he loses, but displays his smooth wrestling/grappling hybrid game when a title's not on the line. This isn't a big fight, and so expect Kawajiri to win by decision.

Takeshi Inoue vs. Caol Uno

In what seems to be the recurring theme of the night, two fighters not what they used to be battle it out for "pride". That sentence makes me want to vomit, but whatever. Inoue, the man they call "lion" (a nickname right up there with "tiger" and "bear" for its wit), once held the proud distinction of being one of the top FW's in the world. He's still good, and his recent losses are to Hioki and Miyata: two very good fighters on the rise. The question is how he'll be able to handle a crafty veteran like Uno?

I admit, I've got a soft spot for Uno. He has to work extra hard to protect his frail chin, and I love the version of SLTS by Nirvana he comes out to (yea the song is "old hat", but it takes me back to 6th grade, when I didn't have to fake ambition). Inoue's best chance is, of course, his striking. He's a solid boxer with decent pop to his fists, and his grappling is competent enough that he could conceivably outpoint Uno. Still, nostalgia (Uno) wins this one by decision. 

Kazushi Sakuraba vs. Yan Cabral

The last time we saw Sakuraba, his ear was falling off like he was the grandma in Peter Jackson's Dead-Alive. Thankfully, he doesn't have to worry about a Zaromskis' like fighter as Cabral is pure grappler. The 9-0 Brazilian holds the distinction of having finished all of his fights by submission. So Dream hasn't exactly picked Cabral out of mothballs.

On the other hand I think it's clear Sakuraba simply needs to retire. The guy will go down as one of the greats, with not a single person capable of saying a bad word about him. But it's been a tough career. I don't think he'll have to rely on will against a prospect who should be willing to take it to the ground where Sakuraba thrives, but a win just means a greater potential for a future matchup that will again exploit his age. However, I think he takes the loss here, even if the mat becomes the sandbox. Sakuraba's grappling isn't what it once was either if his loss to Miller is any indication, and Cabral has a respectable pedigree having been on the grappling mat with legends like Xande Ribeiro. Cabral by decision.

Satoru Kitaoka vs. Willamy Friere

Easy win for Kitaoka here. Well, scratch that. Kitaoka is as likely to score an easy win over a respected fighter as he is to score a lackluster win over a mediocre fighter. The latter was the case in his last win over Jutaro Nakao. With submission wins over Gomi, Condit, and Daley, Kitaoka is the quintessential wild card. Either he wins early and looks brilliant, wins late and looks mediocre, or loses dramatically. Whatever the case, this seems to be the pattern for him and his stable mates at Nippon Top Team.

Friere, the former Shooto Welterweight titleholder had his chance in the big leagues, and blew it in a decision loss to Waylon Lowe. While I don't think the lone loss should have led to him being cut, it's clear he's not "UFC material". Can he avoid the early submission attempts from Kitaoka? While I wouldn't be shocked to see him avoid the submission, I would be shocked to see him avoid the takedown. Kitaoka by lackluster decision.

Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Gerald Harris

While it's unfortunate about what happened to Harris' UFC career, it's nice to see him in a respectable scrap. Nakamura may not be elite, but he's a good fighter, and his experience deserves mention as a fighter that has been in and hung with Shogun, Wanderlei Silva, and Lyoto Machida. I think Harris will be able to take him down, and dominate with top control. He'll have a hell of a time given his Judo background, so expect this fight to be a very ugly one if Kazuhiro can't find Gerald's questionable chin. Harris by decision.   

Ikuhiso Minowa vs. Baru Harn

No I didn't spell the infamous kickboxer's name wrong. Harn is an MMA neophyte, and Mongolian wrestler. It's a hand picked fight, but that's not to say Minowa won't still have trouble. Despite his fan following, he's not exactly a world beater.

Bantamweight Tournament

The BW Tournament is relatively stacked. What makes it highly interesting is the presence of veterans, favorites, and dark horses. That's the case with most tournaments, but here it's pretty emphasized.

For example, Imanari is favored to beat Callum, and likely will. He matches up well with the rest of those in the tournament. I expect Antonio Banuelos (last seen fighting like a complete harebrain against Miguel Torres) to upset Tokoro as I think he has the power to put him away, giving the tournament a respectable US rep.

Fernandes vs. Otsuka is a fine rematch, but my real interest is in seeing what Yusup Saadulaev can do on the big stage. He hasn't been in the ring or cage since January of last year, but he's a prospect to watch out for. If you don't believe me check out his youtube highlight. Of course, the tournament will prove to a tough baptism, but I'm eager to see what he can offer.