Strikeforce Fedor vs. Henderson: Preview and Prognostications

I understand the lack of interest in this card, but I don't understand the lack of expectation. It is, after all, exactly what you'd want out of a Strikeforce card: the matchups may be not UFC-level, but many of them are compelling by themselves, and where status and rank falter, dynamics and intensity prevail. The big question on everyone's mind is whether or not Fedor is still relevant.

I personally don't think this fight, win or lose, will answer those questions. If he loses, chances are good that Fedor simply retires. If he wins, he beat a LHW. Fedor is still a HW, and nothing about a potential victory over Henderson will tell us whether or not he can compete against the upper tier HW's in Strikeforce he already lost to, nevermind any sort of renaissance in the UFC's shark tank (sorry Gus, I meant 'shank tark').

However, it's a great fight by itself. And below it are plenty of matchups that are likely to inspire fireworks, and the female title fight promises a very compelling matchup. So let's take a look.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Dan Henderson

The only time Dan has ever lost two in a row were on two occasions: Arona/Big Nog in 2002, and Rampage/Anderson in 2007/08. After all those years, it feels bizarre to think of Fedor as the man on the other side, waiting to climb out of a rut. Dan doesn't offer the same threats as Werdum and Silva. Both of them essentially beat him on the ground. Dan's best shot is on the feet, and that's what makes this fight so interesting.

For the longest time Fedor was never really appreciated for what he could do on the feet, despite how evident it was early on in his career. His striking, while lacking in terms of technique, is versatile. But it's versatile in a way that's fitting for MMA: he can thread a lightning quick right hand down the pipe for the killshot (ala Rogers), he can throw in combination, and his hands are notoriously brittle for the casting punch he uses to punish opponents from the outside. And then here's Hendo...who seems to get by with just a right hand and nothing else. Which is fine. Just ask Michael Bisping.

The fight will play out on the feet, as both tend to prefer this battleground. I lean towards Henderson, not because he's the better striker, but because in a firefight, which this match is liable to turn into, I always go with the fighter with the proven chin. Plus Henderson looked absolutely brilliant in his last outing against Cavalncante. I don't think Fedor is some sort of "shell of his former self", as if his previous two losses couldn't be explained by better preparation on the part of his opponents. But I think Dan would have been a tough matchup for Fedor at any point in his career. Henderson by TKO, round 2. 

Marloes Coenen vs. Miesha Tate

Women's MMA is in a tough place because as it tries to be a respected part of MMA culture, it must rely heavily on individual stars. And that can be a tricky business. Gina Carano all but disappeared from the spotlight for a role in a Steven Soderbergh film who is currently on his retirement tour (a filmmaker whose risks are mistaken for quality, though I think he's generally a solid filmmaker, just a sporadic one). Can Coenen or Tate fill those shoes?

Tate can. Coenen has the more crowd pleasing style, but Tate is the real cover girl of the two, and this is generally the type of respect female MMA garners, for better or for worse. Unfortunately this story misses the heart of the matchup, which is these are two really good, really talented women fighting. I still think Marloes has proved more in defeat to Cyborg, than she ever has in victory to anyone else. Her fights with Sarah Kaufman and Liz Carmouche were both affairs that required the type of resolve that might have felt 'too close for comfort' to her. Tate, with her stifling wrestling, appears to be another fighter that will keep Coenen on her toes. 

I think Tate takes this by decision. She's never been submitted, and she's improved enough on the feet to avoid being thought of as Kaitlin Young's highlight reel. She grinds out the victory here, and as a result, becomes the most marketable female fighter in the sport.

Robbie Lawler vs. Tim Kennedy

I have to disagree with our former head of operations, Matt Roth, on this one, about what Robbie Lawler "could have been". As the inimitable Tomas Rios said in response, "Robbie Lawler could have been great if Robbie Lawler wasn't Robbie Lawler". Well said. Lawler was never an exceptional wrestler, and certainly not a submission expert. With few exceptions*, you don't "miss greatness" by being one dimensional, and Lawler has mostly unevolved.

He's still a quality brawler, but I like Kennedy's more measured approach in this one. Kennedy won't be sucked into a brawl, and if the fight somehow goes to the ground, odds are stacked even higher in his favor. Tim Kennedy by decision.

Paul Daley vs. Tyron Woodley

Could this be Daley/Koscheck all over again, but without Daley's jackass behavior afterword? Fans could end up hating this fight, and chances are good they will. Woodley won't be interested in playing Daley's game, and rightfully so. I've never been sympathetic to the "boo hoo, wrestlers keep exploiting my weakness" mantra from fighters like Daley. It's precisely what makes these so called "exciting" fighters not that exciting: the prospect of turning in a boring fight for being flawed in certain areas (the fighter that can't stop a fight from being boring is the real culprit in my opinion).

To his credit, Daley has improved his takedown defense, but not enough to shut Woodley out. As always Daley has that old "puncher's chance", but I expect this fight to look like Daley/Masvidal, but without his opponent's brain farting in the 3rd round. Woodley by decision.

Scott Smith vs. Tarec Saffiedine

Scott Smith has done well for himself, all things considered. Never anything more than a journeyman, and yet despite this, he's crafted a unique identity for himself as the "comeback kid". Against Saffiedine, who is more polished, he won't enjoy any advantages. Saffiedine by TKO, round 2. 

*When I think of "could have been great", my first thought is someone like Murilo Bustamante who while great, missed his chance at establishing a real legacy after holding out for more money (a decision he once said he would have liked back). If he had stayed at MW in the UFC, chances are good he would have reigned for awhile, keeping guys like Franklin, Lindland, and Tanner at bay. Even in Japan against monsters like Henderson, and Jackson, he fought them in highly contested bouts.