DREAM Japan Grand Prix Final Preview and Prognostications

Previewing Japanese MMA is a thankless job. Simply put, nobody cares. Even the hardcore fans are being influenced by this "Japanese MMA is dead" mantra, as if the inability of some fighters to lose to their North American counterparts, many of whom are talented, indicates a nationwide shortage of fighters of any worth whatsoever. I think we should be careful with these broad strokes, but considering this won't even be televised, I can't say I blame the critics.

However, there are some good fights on this card. And it's not like there's anything else to discuss, unless your mind is stimulated by Jon Jones not signing replica belts. 

Gegard Mousasi vs. Hiroshi Izumi

My position on Japanese MMA feels so noble in my head, and then I have to preview this travesty, and suddenly I realize the joke's on me. This fight is for the LHW belt; a fact usually of some semblance of significance, but not here. Izumi, while ok as a fighter, is your garden variety Judoka. That means no care is taken whatsoever to groom him, he's fighting for a title despite being 4-1, and in a year, he'll be in the ring opposite Todd Duffee. 

The story here is Mousasi. Once considered more than a prospect, but a revered P4P candidate, and someone to take up Fedor's mantle as one of the non-Zuffa owned greats, he's at a bit of an impasse. A draw with Keith Jardine, no matter how contested, will do that to your career. Although I think discerning fans simply recognize his deficiency: defending the takedown. Mousasi doesn't have to worry about sharpening up that part of his game here, which is unfortunate. Mousasi's obviously talented, but he's talented on the feet, which means whatever ability he might have wrestling needs to be fostered, and gained by training with fighters that can coax that ability out of him, if it exists at all. This is the lesson MMA fans have a hard time learning: sometimes that potential just isn't there. Ala Duane Ludwig.

Hiroyuki Takaya vs. Kazayuki Miyata

It's nice to see Miyata finally come into his own. He's always been talented, but Japanese matchmakers put him in high profile fights way too soon. His 6 fight win streak is not a mirage: Uno, Inoue, and Otsuka were fights he would have lost early in his career Takaya, meanwhile, is experiencing a bit of a renaissance. I expect this fight to be a stern test for Miyata. Miyata's superhuman wrestling ability vs. Takaya's superhuman takedown defense (it's what allows him to stay so active on the feet against guys who don't want to stand with him). Or as Mike Goldberg might slobber into the microphone: "the immovable object versus the unstoppable force!!!". Or is that Mauoa? I get bland MMA commentators mixed up. Anyway, I expect Miyata by controversial decision. He'll get the takedowns early, but as he fades, Takaya will be better at keeping the fight on the feet, creating more exchanges. 

Masakazu Imanari vs. Hideo Tokoro

Tokoro was talking retirement as early as last year, but a 3 fight winning streak has convinced him otherwise. Will that continue here? Not likely. Tokoro has been submitted before, and to fighters less talented than Imanari on the ground. Although I do think Tokoro fighting a measured pace on the feet can win the fight. Imanari, after all, is terrible standing, but can often mask it with his unorthodox flailing and diving. Imanari by submission, round 1.

Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Drew Fickett

The Melendez beatdown (a term that puts it mildly) lowered Kawajiri's stock more than the loss itself. So I'm not sure if that is reason enough to think Fickett, who is talented but highly inconsistent, will have a chance, but Kawajiri is a relative constant. Fickett used to have relative name value, and it was his supposed war with Kenny Florian that got both noticed by the UFC, but now he's just a mock up of his former self. Still, the guy's talented, so I expect some early sparks, but with Kawajiri winning comfortably with his trademark style.

Marius Zaromskis vs. Eiji Ishikawa

I expect this to look like a lot of Marius' fights with journeyman fighters: with his opponent unconscious. The veteran of Deep and Pancrase just doesn't have enough to offer, and that's what makes him, "dead meat". Zaromskis by TKO, round 1.

Keisuke Fujiwara vs. Kenji Osawa

Both fighters are decent enough, but don't expect fireworks. Osawa is a workmanlike striker, and despite some raw poer, so is Fujiwara. I'll keep my predictions opposite Leland Rolling, and go with Osawa by lightning striking KO.

Tatsuya Mizuno vs. Trevor Prangley

As good as Prangley is, which is to say, as talented as he is for a glorified journeyman, I'm not sure he overcomes the size disadvantage. Mizuno is the bigger man, and he's scrappy enough to give Trevor fits if he's not on his A-game, which is sometimes the case. I'm picking Mizuno because I think he's still got that Melvin Manhoef turnbuckle beating sparkle in his eye.

Eiji Mitsuoka vs. Bruno Carvalho

Despite the hype being foisted on Carvalho, Mitsuoka is exactly the type of cagey veteran to give him trouble. Mitsuoka has some solid wins, over guys like Brian Cobb, Hellboy (although I felt Hansen deserved the decision), and Damm (before Melendez killed him, only for Wilcox to dig up his corpse and kill him again). Is Carvalho ready for that kind of action? I'm inclined to say no. Mitsuoka by decision.