UFC 130 Fight Card: Staff Predictions

Quinton Jackson vs Matt Hamill

Brent - Do I think that Matt Hamill could use wrestling to secure victory here? Sure. Good chance that he won't though. As such, superior boxing wins it for Jackson. Quinton Jackson via unanimous decision.

David - Jackson by TKO, round 2. Not with confidence though. One twitter pic of being in shape is not enough to convince me Quinton is "prepared". Preparation is not just making weight: it's having the mentality that your interest in the sport won't wane, and that the threat your opponent poses is more important than acting alongside Jessica Biel (wait...). Hamill's a tough kid, and I could see him hanging around, but he tends to get caught in exchanges, and against Jackson, that's not a safe place to be.

Derek - While I'm insanely tempted to pick the upset here, I'll have a modicum of faith in Rampage's desire and ability to hold his own in the wrestling department.  A Hamill UD wouldn't dumbfound me, but I'll go Rampage by TKO in the third.

James - Similar to Rampage, I am completely overlooking Matt Hamill. Outside of wrestling, Jackson has Hamill beat across the board in every single category. Don’t get me wrong, I really like Hamill as a fighter and a person, but he just doesn’t stand a chance. He’s going to lean in with his slow, telegraphed punches and get clocked. Quinton Jackson by 1^st round KO.

Tim - Hamill’s striking hasn’t come along as far as people like to think it has. He’s going to have major trouble taking Rampage down, and he’s going to get bombed upon. Rampage wants that money, and he’s gonna get it by pounding on Matt Hamill for a round and a half. Then the referee is going to step in and end the insanity. Rampage, TKO, round 2

Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson

Brent - I'm buying into the whole thing about this being a bout centered on striking. Mir's technical ability, should it show itself as it has at times, will carry the bout for him. Frank Mir via second round stoppage.

David - I'm sure there's a contingent of hardcore fans playing the youtube video of Roy Nelson beating Frank Mir in a grappling tournament to imply the proper pick here, and while it's an interesting piece of evidence that may prove to be revelatory, I don't think it proves Nelson is a better grappler, for example (Mir was all over him before he gassed). And it certainly doesn't prove Nelson's a better striker (who has a right hand and nothing much else). Mir's a flawed fighter, but he's serious about what he needs to do to get better, and technique wise, he's smart about how to get there ("weight gain" notwithstanding). I won't be shocked to see Nelson win, but Mir by Decision.

Derek - Ducharme may well be correct here, but if  he is, then I'll go with the fat man that can actually take punishment in addition to giving it.  If he's wrong, then I'll give Nelson the nod in the grappling department and trust he can use his goofy-ass figure to control Frank on the ground.  Roy Nelson via The Moon.

James - It’s hard for me to be unbiased in this fight, because I hate Frank Mir and I love Roy Nelson. Everything that is great about America is personified in Big Country’s stomach. That being said, I still believe Nelson holds advantages over Mir in an unbiased sense. Despite what Mir thinks, Junior Dos Santos is a far better boxer than him, and he couldn’t finish Roy. Also, despite both fighters’ love for slugging it out, I see a majority of this fight being fought on the ground. I’m picking Big Country by 2^nd round TKO.

Tim - Interesting fight. Nelson probably has the better takedowns, but the ground game is a wash. This will probably be contested standing, and while Nelson has power and accuracy, he doesn’t have speed. Mir might get shat upon for his predictable standup, but Roy Nelson is easy to hit and Mir’s going to touch him up. Mir, decision

Stefan Struve vs Travis Browne

Brent - Browne should offer a really great challenge for Struve, and i believe that he'll have the young Dutch fighter in trouble at least once during a striking exchange. That said, Struve possesses the physical tools to dictate the pace of a bout and get himself out of trouble. What's more, I see him carrying the bout when things go to the mat. Stefan Struve via split decision.

David - This fight will be over quick. Struve is incapable of fighting to his strengths, preferring instead to entertain the crowd and scream indistinct exclamations into the mic after a bloody bout. I don't think Browne is a better fighter, but I think he has enough power to prove to Struve that he needs to start using a jab before he wants to turn into a HW Chris Lytle. Browne by KO, round 1.

Derek - I like both of these guys - and Browne's draw against Kongo is more impressive than anything Struve's ever done - but I prefer the Skyscraper.  At 255 (and growing), I am once again hoping that the man uses his range this time.  Struve via decision.

James - This is a big fight (pun totally intended) for both of these guys. Travis Browne is undefeated, with his only blemish coming in a controversial draw against Cheick Kongo at UFC 120. Stefan Struve has shown incredible resilience in his fights, and despite lacking technical ability, has submitted a majority of his opponents. In the end, I believe it’s going to come down to whether or not Struve can survive the power of Travis Browne. I think he can. Struve via unanimous decision.

Tim - I don’t have a whole lot to say. Browne’s getting submitted. Struve, sub, round 2

Rick Story vs Thiago Alves

Brent - I'm willing to go so far as to say that this bout is winnable for Story, but I don't know that his grappling provides a clear path to victory. Would be a little less shocked than some might expect if I were to be proven wrong though. Thiago Alves via third round TKO.

David - Best fight all weekend, and that's including the great Dream card. A Story win will be great for the WW division, as it puts Alves out of contention permanently, and we have a new contender. But Alves is still a really good, phenomenal, in fact, WW. Alves doesn't get enough credit for being a solid defensive grappler, and having pretty good takedown defense despite his losses to Fitch and GSP (which he displayed against Koscheck). It's the perfect fight for Story. If he loses, he can reasses his game, since an Alves win will mean Story needs to polish up his striking. If he wins, it means he's ready, and GSP needs interesting contenders who actually deserve their title shots. 

Derek - Upset of the night.  Alves has been a consistent top four welterweight for years, with only GSP and Jon Fitch making him look silly.  Yes, he stuffed Koscheck over and over, but Kos took that fight on short notice.  I love me some Rick "The Horror" Story and I have an implicit interest in seeing new contenders at 170 arise, as I've consistently said how dumb the Silva/GSP superfight is.  Thus, Story via UD.

James - I’d like to preface this by saying that I made these picks before the weigh-ins, so if Alves is back to his old ways and misses weight, I don’t want to be held responsible. That being said, I think Story is over his head here. While some of Alves’ most recent losses have come to strong wrestlers, it’s hard to put Story in the same category as GSP and Jon Fitch. Thiago Alves via 2^nd round knockout.

Tim - This is one I will get wrecked for. I’m a huge Rick Story fan and feel like he’s criminally underrated in this matchup. Alves has problems with guys that get on him, and that’s what Story does. If Alves can chop the lead leg pretty much immediately, he’s got a good shot of slowing down Story, but I don’t see it. Story’s not Jon Fitch, but I see this fight going the same way – Alves getting super frustrated and Story not giving him any room to breathe. Story, decision

Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago

Brent - Stann could definitely end Santiago's night if he lands the proper shot. I don't think it's going to happen though. In truth, I see Stann being on the receiving end of some damaging shots himself; not quite enough to end the bout early, but it should be clear. Jorge Santiago via unanimous decision.

David - Santiago is never a safe pick, no matter how talented. It sucks that a fighter so talented is so compromised by something so biological: a damn frail chin. Usually the term "glass jaw" is empty rhetoric from fans, and neglects what usually leads to a fighter being knocked out: crappy standup defense. Santiago was cracked by a backhand hammerfist in a fighter's guard (!). For this reason alone, Stann has a chance here, and especially after taking out Chris Leben on the feet, who is anything but chinny (although a few more slugfests and he'll be there). But Jorge will fight smart, and fight to win. With talent on his side, and the awareness that he needs to perform, I got Santiago by RNC, round 2 (but with heavy reservations). 

Derek - Santiago is probably the better fighter overall, but I just can't pick against Stann's power right now.  Stann via KO.

James - It’s about damn time we see Jorge Santiago back in the UFC! I think this is going to be a really entertaining match and it’ll be over quick. While Stann impressed me in his fight against Chris Leben, I just don’t think he has what it takes to defeat Santiago. The only aspect of the fight that I’m nervous about is that Santiago has been off for over 9 months. Santiago by 1^st round submission.

Tim - Interesting fight. Santiago likely holds advantages everywhere, but his weak chin and shaky mental game bite him in the ass a fair amount of the time. Stann is NOT the guy that blasted through Leben normally, that was an outlier. I want to say Santiago by sub, but I’ll go with Santiago by decision.

Miguel Torres vs Demetrious Johnson

Brent - I see Johnson avoiding the striking of Torres and grappling his way to the win. Demetrious Johnson via decision.

David - I blamed Banuelos for the waste of 15 minutes. Luckily, we know Johnson won't stand there in front of a jab all day. He'll mix his striking with takedowns, and thankfully, this is where Torres is at his best: reacting to an aggressive fighter. Torres' instinct is to fight, and I think once he realizes he has the potential to lose by being laid on for 3 rounds, he'll let loose. Johnson is awesome, but he needs 125. Torres' reach will be a factor on the feet, and any potential guillotines, and triangles will be factors on the ground. I think Johnson can win comfortably, but I'll go with my gut and say he gets caught at some point. Torres by Guillotine, round 3.    

Derek - Mighty Mouse stole my heart at WEC 51 in Broomfield.  He has it until he loses it.  Johnson via UD.

James - This is my pick for fight of the night. Both of these guys are lightening fast and capable of finishing the fight anywhere, anytime. In the end, I’m choosing experience over youth. Miguel Torres by 3^rd round submission.

Tim - Sick matchup. Normally I’d have Miggy all the way, but his defensive wrestling has always sucked. He claims to have spent the last year with Firas working on nothing but that, but I dunno. Torres needs to use his length similar to the way he did against Banuelos and not over-commit to shots, because that’s when Mighty Mouse looks for takedowns. I’m taking Torres, but that’s because I’m putting my faith in Firas more than Miguel. Torres, decision

Kendall Grove vs Tim Boetsch

Brent - Does Boetsch's weight cut bring more trouble than good? Does he get caught in a submission? Perhaps. I'll say no. Tim Boetsch via third round knockout.

David - Grove by RNC, round 2. Boetsch is just barely UFC caliber whereas Grove has the talent and ability to stay in the UFC, even if he'll never contend.

Derek - I love the Barbarian and no one will ever forget his redneck judo toss in his UFC debut.  That said, he's just not as good as Kendall Grove, and Grove's gangly ass will negate any size advantage that Boetsch might enjoy against other middleweights.  Grove by submission.

James - This is my pick for bathroom break of the night. With both fighters being consistently inconsistent, and coming off losses, I would be willing to bet that the loser gets cut from the UFC. Maybe that will spice things up a bit, but I’m not holding my breath. Tim Boetsch by unanimous decision.

Tim - As much as I hate Grove, he’s a solid fighter. He’s always lacked the mental aspect of the game more than anything. His BJJ and power are underrated, and I don’t think Boetsch will have much for him here, to be honest. Grove, submission, round 2

Gleison Tibau vs Rafaello Oliveira

Brent - Hard enough challenge if you've got the time to prepare, Oliveira didn't even have as much. Tibau via unanimous decision.

David - Tibau by TKO, round 2. Oliviera has the distinction of making a Nik Lentz fight exciting, but that's the only thing of real note. Tibau is just too good, too strong, too talented, and too big for Oliveira.

Derek - Tibau via Tibauing.

James - Unless their near the top of the division, Gleison Tibau usually has no problem steamrolling through any member of the lightweight division. This is probably because Tibau is a middleweight. No offense to Rafaello Oliveira, but he is not near the top of the division. Tibau via unanimous decision.

Tim - Tibau The Tank Engine will get his smother on. Tibau, decision

Michael McDonald vs Chris Cariaso

Brent - I don't believe that Cariaso will be spoiling the plan here. Michael McDonald by second round knockout.

David - I'm not sold on this "hype train" of sorts over Michael McDonald. His fight with Figueroa was entertaining, but it was also kind of sloppy, and the more I think about it the more McDonald reminds me of boxing's Jason Litzau. Cariaso is not the fighter to give McDonald trouble, but I won't be shocked he does. Still, gotta go with the favorite.McDonald by TKO, round 2. 

Derek - This is one of those bouts where I sit back, fold my arms, and assume Joe Silva knows what he's doing.  McDonald via second round TKO.

James - Chris Cariaso makes Joseph Benavidez look like a giant. Kidding aside, Michael McDonald is five inches taller and has a significant reach advantage. Besides this, I’d be lying if I said I knew anything else about these two. McDonald by 2^nd round TKO.

Tim - Cariaso’s in some trouble, yo. He was better off with Kid. Mayday is a future BW champ in my eyes, and he’s going to light up the alligator-armed Cariaso like the 1st of July. Yeah, I said 1st. I’m Canadian. Deal with it. Mayday, TKO, round 1

Renan Barao vs Cole Escovedo

Brent - Barao has the grappling to end this early. Barao via first round submission.

David - Barao by TKO, round 1. Escovedo's a good fighter, but he seems to fold against aggressive, talented fighters, and I think Barao qualifies.

Derek - Seems to be a consensus on this one.  Barao via submission.

James - There’s a lot of hype around Cole Escovedo’s Octagon debut, and rightfully so. That being said, I’m not buying in just yet, and instead am going to go with the guy who lives his life as Jose Aldo’s sparring partner. Renan Barao by TKO.

Tim - I’m not gonna lie, Escovedo kind of annoyed me with his twitter whining in regards to not getting into the TUF 14 house. The crying got him a shot in the UFC, but he’s going to get plastered by Barao here. He can’t handle Barao on the ground and he’s going to get submitted. Barao, sub, round 2