Dream 17 'Fight for Japan': A Comprehensive Preview For the Card You Won't See

It's been awhile since the last Dream show, which wasn't all that compelling, but was highly notable. Tatsuya Kawajiri dominated Josh Thomson, giving some, including myself, the impression he could hang with Gilbert Melendez: an impression that turned out to be impressively incorrect. Hiroyuki Takaya beat the very talented Bibiano Fernandes. Mousasi exposed the sport of K-1 with one fight. Nagashima then exposed all of MMA with one knee (with Frank Trigg wearing the wig to prove it). And Sakuraba took me back to Peter Jackson's early filmmaking years, where the protagonist's mom in the initial stages of becoming a zombie, has her ear fall off into a bowl of custard. Like early Pride at times, the footnotes were more memorable than the fights themselves. So Dream is finally back, and the importance of the event is fully recognized by those in charge.

While it seems positively silly to expect a small MMA event to inspire an entire culture, I can't really argue against an individual's beliefs in the face of tragedy. Keiichi Sasahara truly believes this is a seminal moment not just for Dream (and K-1), but for Japan. For historical context, here's the inimitable Tony Loiseleur:   

While many are only now marveling at how calmly the Japanese have accepted and responded to the Great Tohoku Earthquake, this stalwart resilience and perseverance is nothing particularly new for Japan. The immediate aftereffects of World War II left Japan both demoralized and in economic shambles, but within a few decades, the island nation successfully traded in its military empire for a potent economic and technological one.

One inspirational sporting icon who held a particular position of reverence in the revitalization of postwar Japan was professional wrestler Mitsuhiro Momota, better known as Rikidozan. Though ethnically Korean, Rikidozan served as Japan's avatar of strength and moral discipline in the ring. Thanks to professional wrestling's special form of physical theater, Rikidozan showed local audiences that his inherent Japanese spirit would always see him victorious, even against the likes of larger and stronger Western wrestlers. Rikidozan's victories were thus sources of immense inspiration for Japan in a time when the country needed national heroes.

It is perhaps no surprise that Sasahara and company view Rikidozan's contributions to 1950s and 1960s postwar Japan as the example to follow in the wake of March 11's destruction. It is in that tradition that the "Japan Cup Bantamweight Grand Prix," which was rumored to take place at Tokyo Dome City Hall last April, was repurposed into May 29's "Fight for Japan" charity event at Saitama Super Arena.

"We feel very much that we have a responsibility to that legacy," Sasahara says with a hearty laugh. "I think that legacy is our main motivation. We have to keep that history going."

While his ambitions are perhaps beyond his abilities, or the abilities of Dream as a whole, and Loiseleur himself argued as much on Press Row with Jordan Breen, there's a rare cultural subtext to this event that exists, making it more compelling than it has any right to be. Too bad nobody here will get to see it live. Oh...about the fights.

Bantamweight Tournament

Yoshiro Maeda vs. Hideo Tokoro

Great matchup. Maeda has his brief time in the sun, notably in his loss to Miguel Torres: a fight that feels like a relic given where both fighters are now in their careers despite happening in 2008. He's a solid fighter, with a mostly well rounded skillset and a competent stand up game that acts as his bread and butter. This will serve him well against Tokoro, who despite the flashy submissions, never seems capable of pulling out the victory against the elite (minus the Pequeno win, which was a legit upset at the time, although Pequeno should have been smashed long before Tokoro got to him if he had never ducked Melendez).

I like Maeda here. Tokoro's a legit action fighter, but it's style that doesn't suit his lack of durability. Tokoro doesn't have a sturdy chin, and Maeda has the ability to avoid those crazy submission attempts of his. Tokoro is like a modern day Rumina Sato, minus the finishing abilities (or raw talent for that matter). He's talented as hell, but just not durable enough to pull off wins against fighters he's better than (on paper). Maeda by TKO, round 2.

Yusaku Nakamura vs. Atsushi Yamamoto

It's difficult to tell what Nakamura is capable of with no tape to tell the tale. He's 3-0, with all first round TKO finishes, but he's also coming in on late notice, which is unfortunate because Darren Uyenoyama would have made for a competitive matchup, I think.

Atsushi is my dark horse pick. He's never been truly embarrassed in his modern career, outside of the his bizarre kickboxing bout with Kazahisa Watanabe where Yamamoto proved to be as out of his depth as Watanabe was, out of his mind. Whatever particular drug inspired Watanabe's antics, and specifically, a scissor leg takedown in the middle of a K-1 bout is anyone's guess. It was fun, but it didn't expose Atsushi, who happens to be very capable on the feet in MMA, and his grappling is good enough to avoid even the most talented grappler in the tournament, who he already fought (in a sort of controversial decision loss to Imanari). Yamamoto by TKO, round 1.

Kenji Osawa vs. Takafumi Otsuka

I've already displayed my love for Osawa in my previous piece: a guy who is just a solid fighter, but doesn't do anything special. He's essentially a poor man's version of his opponent, however, in Otsuka.

The tough part about picking this tournament is that my two darkhorse picks (Yamamoto, and Otsuka) are the two fighters who have the least amount of deficiencies, yet are outgunned on the ground against say, Imanari, and on the feet there is no one fighter who particularly sucks (except for Imanari). Otsuka, like Yamamoto, has never been truly embarrassed, and he's fought some tough opposition (Rafael Dos Anjos, Bibiano Fernandes, and Kazayuki Miyata, for example). It's a competitive fight, but one Otsuka will have the advantage in. Otsuka by decision. 

Keisuke Fujiwara vs. Masakazu Imanari

At 11-2-4 Fujiwara has never been submitted, but if anyone can test that level of defense, Imanari will be it. Fujiwara's a good fighter, but he's not especially dynamic, and while he's got some raw power, he doesn't pull the trigger enough, which is terrible against Imanari.

Imanari is like Satoru Kitaoka-light, who himself is like Shinya Aoki-light. He's the kind of lights out grappler who wouldn't be able to throw a punch that could break wind, yet would still be capable of beating great fighters (check out his baseball slide against Mike Brown). Having said that, he's also kind of a weirdo, which is why I don't mind seeing him get knocked out by Joachim Hansen, or getting schooled on the mat by Rumina Sato. And like his fellow teammates, for all their accolades, their lack of any real standup game makes them prone to either bad losses, or bad performances. Imanari is no different, and for that I'm picking Fujiwara in the upset.

Non-Tournament Fights

Caol Uno vs. Akiyo Nishiura

Awesome fight. Or I should say, as good a fight you can make with one fighter who hasn't won a match since 2008. Uno doesn't need to hang his head in shame though. His best days are behind him, and boy have they been good ones. His first fight with Sato is a bonafide classic. He drew with BJ Penn when Penn was unstoppable (in a fight that killed the LW division, granted). And when he out grappled, and submitted Ishida, I thought he had a real chance against Aoki at Dream 5. His entrance to Nirvana with tears in his eyes gave me goosebumps (cliched song be damned). Uno, having outgrappled Ishida showing off some stellar takedown defense to do so, seemed primed to upset Aoki. He didn't unfortunately, and his UFC stint, despite some shitty decisions (Fisher and Camoes), proved to be lackluster.

Uno has never had a great chin, which is what makes this fight tough because that's the only way Akiyo can win, and he's pretty good at it. While I still think Uno has some left, a knockout loss may signal his retirement. I think he'll take this fight though. I'm not comfortable with the pick, but Akiyo did get thoroughly controlled by Abel Callum. He's improved since then, but not enough for me to take him over Uno. Uno by decision.

Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. Joachim Hansen

It's amazing to think these two fighters used to be legit top 10 LW's. Hansen has since dropped fights at FW, and Ishida has been all but forgotten: a far cry from Ishida's showcase fight with Justin Wilcox (now considered a contender to Melendez' title) with one of the most brilliant submissions of the year as contender for the Strikeforce title. I'm leaning towards Ishida, who will surely smother Hansen the first chance he gets, but his frail chin isn't exactly a match made in Norwegian heaven given Hellboy's dynamic knees. Nonetheless, I'll take Ishida by Decision. 

Katsunori Kikuno vs. Daisuke Nakamura

Kikuno is one of those fighters who just needs a few tweeks in his game to establish the kind of mystique that has accompanied fighters like Machida, for example. Cardio is probably his main weakness, and if he had any, he would have taken that fight against JZ. What shocks me about Kikuno the fighter, is his supernatural like strength. Eddie Alvarez (a big LW known for his crushing power) was in serious trouble from a standing crucifix (!) against Kikuno. And there's a moment in his fight against Cavalcante (notorious for cutting a lot of weight and just being a powerhouse of a LW) where Katsunori just ragdolls him to the canvas.

With these tweeks, Kikuno can become the type of fighter Sasahara speaks of. He's an amazing, crafty, atypical striker, with knockout power, and for at least a round, he's a nightmare to put on his back. While he didn't set the roof on fire with his split decision win over Obiya, it should be noted that people rarely look good defeating Nobuhiro Obiya (who has never been finished, and that's with Gilbert Melendez on his dance card). I love the dynamic of this fight because Kikuno needs a fight against a good grappler to prove he can deal with this type of threat, and Nakamura fulfills that spot. Still, I got Kikuno by KO.

Takeshi Inoue vs. Koichiro Matsumoto

If there's a pattern here it's "solid matchmaking". Matsumoto is a good fighter, and despite the hype of Inoue's status in Shooto, there's the real threat of an upset here. Inoue, for all the claims about his striking, can fall into lulls that either get him caught, or disrupted (as he did against Savant Young in a fight that ended the ridiculous debate about "ring vs. cage", where he got stuck in a guillotine, and essentially passed out, but only as he fell through the ropes, which got him his necessary "restart"). Still, Inoue's a good fighter, and his TKO win over Taiki Tsuchiya (who is good) proved his mind is where it needs to be. Inoue by decision.

Shinya Aoki vs. Rich Clementi

I get sick of hearing the words "so and so will expose Aoki because they're a good wrestler with great standup". How many fighters have qualified for that statement who Aoki buried? Cavalcante, Kawajiri, Alavrez, etc. MMA fans tend to suck, and suck hard at contextualizing a fighter's flaws. Aoki is not multidimensional by any stretch, but he's crafty with how he responds to what his flaws are, typically hiding them with some saavy clinchwork, and "tricks" (like pulling guard). Aoki gets caught in dramatic ways (like against Nagashima, and Sakurai), which is what explains what gives fans an inflated sense of what Aoki's weaknesses are. It doesn't help that he's a polarizing figure to begin with, and flipped off a fighter after breaking their limb.

For all those words wasted on what makes Aoki kind of underrated, Rich Clementi is not the fighter to test that. He's a good fighter, and an MMA neophyte would never guess he beat a green but dangerous Anthony Johnson, but Clementi has since dropped fights to opponents in discrete towns that are defined by their low population, and distinct lack of literature. Aoki, meanwhile, will always suffer an embarrassing loss in the middle of great wins. Frank Trigg won't be wearing a wig on this one, however. Aoki by armbar, round 1.