The WEC Files - UFC 128, Undercard

For the uninitiated, this is the third part in a continuing series covering the alumni of my all-time favorite promotion, World Extreme Cagefighting.  The two articles this week will provide an overview of guys that are fighting on the mammoth UFC 128 card this weekend in Newark, NJ.  We'll start with the undercard, which happens to contain a matchup between an elite prospect and a seasoned top-flight veteran at featherweight; a flashy and exciting lightweight; and a certain top 2 bantamweight.

I can't hide my disappointment about the fact that three of the four fighters aren't having their fights shown.  These pieces aren't designed to continually whine about possible mistreatment though - they're to give these guys the insanely bright Head Kick Legend spotlight, baby!  They better get some effin shades!  Yeah yeah, I know...pretty lame, Tim.  Can't knock em all outta the park. And off to the races, we go we go...

Erik Koch vs. Raphael Assuncao - I love this fight. DavidAC did a great job of covering things with his post here,  so I'll skim over the histories and use the extra space to cover how I think this goes down.  Koch, who went 3-1 in the WEC, will definitely have his hands full with Assuncao, who sported a 3-2 WEC record (albeit against much tougher competition).  Neither of these guys had a single boring fight in the WEC, and the promotion to the big leagues should only serve to get even more out of these two.

Who's gonna win? - Assuncao.  Koch is the betting favorite, younger, bigger, and flashier.  He has a lot going for him and will have a bright future.  Unfortunately for him, he's going to be giving up two things in this fight - the initiative and the takedown.  Assuncao has very underrated wrestling and clinch takedowns, and he's perfectly capable of hanging on the feet.  Koch will have some reach but Assuncao usually spends little time exchanging punches if he's not the aggressor - he will move inside ASAP.  Koch has good takedown defense, but he'll have trouble defending against the stocky grinder in Assuncao, especially against the cage. 

Koch is dynamic and can be unpredicatable on the feet, which is something Assuncao has had problems with in the past, but I can't see Koch having enough time to enact a banging gameplan.  Rafael Assuncao is one of my favorite fighters, so take this for what it's worth, but I think he's an excellent bet at +135 and he's going to grind out a decision.  And a return to relevance.

Anthony Njokuani - 4-3 in the WEC.  You always knew what you were getting in an Njokuani WEC fight - action.  Right from the start against Ben Henderson at WEC 38, Anthony showed off some flashy Muay Thai and a lot of heart, even in a losing cause.  He quickly rebounded with three straight TKO victories, the last one being an all-time classic against Chris Horodecki.  Why describe it when I can just show you this?

via urdirt.com

Yeah, that's what's up.  Boom.  That epic kick earned him a number one contender's fight against wrestler Shane Roller at WEC 48, which quickly saw Njokauni taken down and slapped in a rear naked choke in just over three minutes.  And on a PPV main card, no less.  Afterwards, Anthony made some unfortunate comments about his opponent on twitter which clearly hurt his stock in the promotion even more than the loss. 

He was demoted to the undercard of WEC 50, facing a debtuing Maciej Jewtuszko.  He came out lazy and unmotivated, and was subsequently destroyed by a Jewtuszko spinning back fist and multiple uppercuts, getting KO'd for the first time in his career.  He managed to save his job by finishing newcomer Edward Faaloloto at WEC 52, but his job is absolutely on the line on Saturday night.

Probability of winning - Below average.  Njokuani brings a big time Muay Thai game into the cage every time.  Too bad his opponent is an absolute Muay Thai monster.  Edson Barboza. 25-3 in Muay Thai.  Laundry list of accolades.  7-0 in MMA.  7 stoppages.  Current Ring of Combat LW Champ.  Tall and rangy for a LW, just like Njokuani.  I have a feeling this is going to look like Cantwell/Diabate - Barboza is going to destroy him and make it look easy.  And Anthony's going to be looking for a job.  Sorry, but his file's about to be closed.

Joe Benavidez - 5-2 in the WEC.  If you watched these shows on Versus for any length of time, you should know who this guy is.  If you didn't, you're about to learn that you shouldn't underestimate anyone because they're 5'4.  This Team Alpha Male standout has mixed very good technical striking in with his patented "Joe Jitsu", solid wrestling, and a non-stop motor to quickly climb the ranks at 135, currently sitting at # 2 in the world.  He also has a booming personality that belies his size.

He entered the WEC on the heels of disappointment, expecting to fight Kid Yamamoto in Dream but given a late replacement instead when Kid got hurt.  Nevertheless, a win there earned him his blue gloves, and a couple of solid-if-unspectacular decision wins over Danny Martinez at WEC 37 and one-time FW title challenger Jeff Curran at WEC 40 led to a major-league bantamweight matchup that was ahead of it's time - Joe B vs. Dominick Cruz at WEC 42.  Joe was outwrestled and outstruck for the first time in his career by the taller Cruz and dropped a disappointing decision (that still earned fight of the night).

Just four months later he was back on track, picking up his first WEC finish with a beautiful counter right and some GnP that stopped Rani Yahya.  He followed that up with arguably the biggest win of his career to date, where he took former BW champ Miguel Torres to the ground in the 2nd round, busted him wide open with elbows, and slapped on a fight-ending guillotine.  What was next?  His nemesis: Dominick Cruz.  And a shot at The Dominator's newly-won belt.

The title fight at WEC 50 was either a classic or a track meet depending on who you ask, with Joe doing a much better job of establishing his timing against the shifty Cruz and counterfighting him effectively early.  Cruz was able to get timely takedowns from the end of the third round on though, and combined with the fact that he outlanded Joe on the feet, he was able to win a split-decision in a fight where the scores (48-47, 47-48, 49-46) were much closer than the fight looked.  Fightmetric had it 50-45 Cruz.  And Joe was back to square one.  A dominant guillotine finish of BJJ wizard Wagnney Fabiano at WEC 52 closed out his Versus campaign, and Benavidez entered the UFC in the precarious position of being # 2, yet having no chance of claiming a title shot anytime soon.  On Saturday, he faces veteran Ian Loveland in Ian's bantamweight debut.

Probability of winning: High.  Loveland is making the drop to 135 for the first time in his career, and the Team Quest wrestler will walk in with a height and size advantage.  Unfortunately for Loveland, his main strengths are his wrestling and his volume striking from outside, which just happens to fall into Joe's wheelhouse.  Loveland throws some funky low-percentage stuff, and that will cost him against a good wrestler.  If they both fall into counterfighting mode this could be boring, but Joe's ability to go on the attack and his ability to switch stances should effectively mess with Loveland and his heavy hands.  Ultimately, Loveland is open for submission opportunities all over the place and Joe will eventually exploit that after someone gets it to the floor.  I'd take Benavidez by submission (probably a guillotine) and a possible battle with Brian Bowles in the near future.

In part 2, we'll cover the WEC guys on the main card - Kamal Shalorus, and the huge bantamweight battle between former BW champ Eddie Wineland and former FW champ Urijah Faber.  See ya tomorrow.  Or the day after, depending on my beer selections this week.