UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem - Staff Predictions
by Earl Montclair on Dec 30, 2011 12:28 PM EST
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The final UFC card of 2011 is finally here and it is headlined by two of the most imposing men ever to set foot in a cage. Brock Lesnar will face off with Alistair Overeem for the right to challenge YOUR new Heavyweight Overlord, Junior dos Santos.
The rest of the card has some compelling match-ups as well including Donald Cerrone vs. Nate Diaz and Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks.
Let the prognosticating commence!
MDH - As a huge Lesnar fan, I have hated this fight from the get go. Brock has been reacting so badly to being hit, missed 14 months due to illness and is taking on The Reem in his comeback fight. This takes a serious stockpile of balls on his part. If Brock sticks to the gameplan and sets up his shot well, he will be able to implement his smothering top game and tire out Overeem. If he goes bananas like he did against Cain or just shoots the double with no set-up he is going to get crushed. I’ll take the former. Brock Lesnar via strawberry eating KO, round 2.
Chris - I hate picking fights like these. Both fighters have the skillset to completely dominate the other. Overeem’s striking can be absolutely devastating and Lesnar reacts horribly when he takes big shots. But, I feel like the fight’s going to go the other way. Lesnar has taken down every single opponent he’s ever faced and I don’t see any reason for Overeem to be the exception. I’m looking for Lesnar to exploit Overeems small gas tank and punish him with those short punches. Lesnar by TKO in the 2nd or 3rd.
Rainer - As Chris mentioned, Lesnar’s managed to take down every one of his opponents. At the same time, none of Overeem’s opponents in the last four years have posed much of a takedown threat, so his defensive wrestling is a bit of a question mark. I think Overeem’s power leaves Brock working a conservative, control-focused game. Lesnar, Unanimous Decision.
Cory - I’m in the camp of “not all that impressed with Overeem in MMA just yet”. Potential is great, but until it’s realized, I remain a doubter. He’s yet to answer the question of a powerful wrestler, and he’s been knocked senseless by people with less power than Brock. I’ll go with Lesnar by GNP, round 3.
MDH - Donald Cerrone has been on a gravy train with biscuit wheels ever since the WEC was absorbed by the UFC. There is absolutely no reason he should be derailed here. Cowboy via Unanimous Decision.
Chris - 2011 has been Cerrone’s year, he’s already fought 4 times and has looked great in every single fight. His complete destruction of Siver and Oliveira pretty much sealed it for me - I’m not betting against this guy any time soon. But Diaz has been finished exactly once in his MMA career so I’ll take Cerrone by Decision
Rainer - No matter what I think of Cerrone personally, I can’t deny that he seems to have really turned a corner in his career. His precision, speed, and jiu-jitsu savvy allow him to edge out the younger Diaz. Cerrone, Split-Decision.
Cory - I guess I’ll just follow the crowd here: Cerrone has more power than Diaz, a wider stand-up game that incorporates kicks and enough BJJ to not get tapped. Cerrone by Decision.
Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks
MDH - Hendricks is in over his head here. Jon Fitch will do what Jon Fitch does. Fitch via UD.
Chris - Originally, I was leaning toward Johny for the upset. Then I rewatched Hendricks/Story. Story completely threw off Hendricks by pressuring him with takedowns which allowed him to open up his striking while Hendricks hesitated. Unless Hendricks has really improved here, there’s no way he upsets Fitch, who’s infinitely better at grinding takedowns and wrestling than Story ever wanted to be. Fitch by Fitch.
Rainer - Fitch seems to have an advantage everywhere except in speed and a willingness to throw hands. That hasn’t stopped him before, though, and I don’t think it’s enough to stop him here. Fitch, Unanimous Decision.
Cory - Just to be ornery, I’ll take the guy I don’t think will win. Yes, I dislike watching Fitch that much. Hendricks via flying knee into an overhand right.
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson
MDH - It was nice to see Vladdy get that quick KO victory over Brilz but The Mauler is a legit prospect who will fight for the belt in the next two years. Gustafsson will add another notch to his victory tattoo. Gustafsson via massive KO in the 1st.
Chris - Matty is a solid veteran and a good test for any prospect. Gustaffson is a great striker and he’s going to control the distance with his movement and footwork and pick Vlad apart like he did agaisnt Hamill. Mauler by 2nd Round TKO.
Rainer - I’m a little confused by the Gustafsson hype. A three-fight win streak is great, but none of his opponents were particularly evolved mixed martial artists. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that a cagey Matyushenko pulls out an upset win. Matyushenko, Submission (rear-naked choke), Round 2.
Cory - I think Mr. Lee is a bit kooky here. Matt Hammil isn’t a chump (Rampage didn’t finish him for starters). Alex by submission, round 3.
Nam Phan vs Jimy Hettes
MDH - Nam being the favorite here is pretty shocking to me. Hettes should make a grand entrance to the UFC at the expense of Nam Phan. Jimy Hettes via TKO in the second.
Chris - I’m a fan of anyone who beats Bruce Leroy. That said, I wasn’t impressed with Hettes takedowns or technical striking. His full on attack grappling is great, but I think Phan out-strikes him en route to a decision. Phan by Unanimous Decision
Rainer - I have this sneaking suspicion that MDH knows something we don’t know. Do you? DO YOU?! I’m going to guess that Phan’s grappling prowess keeps him out of danger long enough for his body shots to knock the fight out of Hettes. Phan, Unanimous Decision.
Cory - I think Mr. Lee is a bit of a genius here. That said, I’m following his lead and taking Nam as well, decision.
Ross Pearson vs. Junior Assuncao
MDH - Pearson is making his Featherweight debut here and barring any issues with the cut, I think he will batter Junior on the feet for the 15 minute duration. Ross Pearson via UD.
Chris - Pearson looked great against Barboza in his last fight and a lot of people thought he should have taken the decision. I don’t see any reason he shouldn’t perform well in his 145 debut. Pearson by TKO
Rainer - I totally spaced on the featherweight nature of this fight. Maybe the first-time cut slows Pearson down a bit, but not enough for Assuncao to get the drop on him. Pearson, TKO, Round 3.
Cory - Yea, I’d completely forgotten the 145 nature as well. I like an upset here for no good reason. Nothing I’d bet on, but hey, have some fun with these, no? Jr. by 2nd round dangadadang.
Anthony Njokuani vs Danny Castillo
MDH - Njo will want to keep this on the feet as per usual. Castillo won’t allow it. Expect “Last Call” to drag the fight to the ground and strangle Njokuani. Danny Castillo via submission (arm triangle) in Round 1.
Chris - Anthony is an exciting striker who’ll probably stick around the UFC for a good while, in virtue of that alone. Matching him up against someone who can get him on his back isn’t going to help him tho. Look for Danny to get into top position and punish Njokuani with ground and pound. Castillo by TKO
Rainer - Castillo is too strong a grappler. The Team Alpha Male rep takes Njokuani down and does his thing. In this case, his thing is a submission in the first. Castillo, Submission (rear-naked choke), Round 1.
Cory - I haven’t really been that impressed with Anthony. He got outgrappled and called the other guy a slur. He got outstruck and that’s his forte. I’ll go with Castillo with a 2nd round armbar.
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Sean Pierson
MDH - Both guys are looking to rebound from vicious KO losses at the hands of Carlos Condit and Jake Ellenberger, respectively. Pierson is in deep trouble here if Kim gets ahold of him and implements his sick judo and top control. Dong Hyun Kim via TKO, Round 3.
Chris - DHK has a way of grabbing ahold of you and never letting go. I don’t think Pierson has what it takes to stop that kind of attack. Stun Gun’s going to get back to his winning ways here. DHK by Unan. Dec.
Rainer - Very excited for this one. In his assault of Matt Riddle, Pierson showed good endurance (something that Kim has struggled with in the past) and he’s also probably got the edge throwing leather. However, I think there’s a greater disparity between Pierson’s grappling and Kim’s own superb knack for mat work, which the Korean will use to great advantage. Kim, Unanimous Decision.
Cory - Chris made my line for me. Stun Gun by UD.
Jacob Volkmann vs. Efrain Escudero
MDH - “Christmas” will be arriving a few days late this year (sad trombone sound) but it will not be a happy holiday for the returning Escudero, who is about to get grappled right back out to the regional promotions. Volkmann via UD.
Chris - ^What he said.
Rainer - Volkmann has been a steady if unspectacular competitor at lightweight whereas Escudero, even with a full training camp, is a little inconsistent. Coming in on short-notice like this, it's even more uncertain which Escudero shows up--the highly competent wrestler/striker that put away Cole Miller, or the hot-dogging goof that dropped a fight to Charles Oliveira. I'll go with the safe bet. Volkmann, Split-Decision.
Cory - Volkmann will probably never see the upper echelon’s of the division. That’s fine, because Efrain won’t either. Christmas by
Matt Riddle vs. Luis Ramos
MDH - Riddle is....not good. This will be a one sided beating with Ramos swinging the hammer. Luis Ramos, TKO, Round 2.
Chris - Ramos is mostly unknown to me, except for being on the wrong side of the Octagon against Erick Silva. But Riddle doesn’t hit like Silva and I expect Ramos to take the decision.
Rainer - Starting his professional career with a 5-1-0 mark in the UFC left me impressed with Riddle, but he hasn't developed much since those early days. We didn't get to see much from Luis Ramos in his UFC debut, but I suspect that he'll put a greater versatility to good use. Ramos, Unanimous Decision.
Cory - I am stuck with the image of Riddle throwing 20 punches in a row and hitting nothing but air. I’m not picking that. Ramos, TKO in the 3rd.
Diego Nunes vs. Manny Gamburyan
MDH - This is a legitimate grudge match and these two with be throwing everything with the worst of intentions. I think Nunes is just better and will put Manny down brutally. Diego Nunes via KO in the 2nd.
Chris - I don’t really have a break down for this one..but my gut says Nunes via Decision
Rainer - A competitive fight with Florian, affiliation with a top-notch camp, quality wins over Mike Brown and Raphael Assuncao...this fight is, on paper, all Nunes. For some reason, though, I keep envisioning a repeat of Brown/Gamburyan. Nevertheless, much like a recent, ah, explosive digestive problem, I'm going to suppress this strange gut feeling. Nunes, Unanimous Decision.
Cory - Rainer said exactly what I was thinking. I’ll chicken out, too. Nunes, TKO.
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I am stunned we all picked Lesnar
Writing things on occasion @ Head Kick Legend.
Team Captain for Ruining Your Special Night. That's what we do.
by Earl Montclair on Dec 30, 2011 12:39 PM EST reply actions
me too...
i obviously have overeem whereas i totally agree with Cerrone and my favorite prediction:“Fitch by Fitch”
by Carwin_Army on Dec 30, 2011 12:59 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
The thing with the Lesnar fight is that, like Chris said, both guys have such a clear path to victory that it makes it tough
I just think Lesnar has a better chance of getting it to the ground than Alistair does of keeping in standing long enough.
Fitch is definitely going to Fitch, though. I laughed at that too.
Writing things on occasion @ Head Kick Legend.
Team Captain for Ruining Your Special Night. That's what we do.
by Earl Montclair on Dec 30, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
i can't wait for the shitstorm
when he finally has a dynamic finish. The schmucksfans will be on me like white on rice with the SEE I TOLD YOU SO?!
The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com
by Cory Braiterman on Dec 30, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
I just think we're all smart
The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com
by Cory Braiterman on Dec 30, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
we will soon find out.
Writing things on occasion @ Head Kick Legend.
Team Captain for Ruining Your Special Night. That's what we do.
by Earl Montclair on Dec 30, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
This is in stark contrast...
to yesterday’s pickings on Bloody Elbow.
by fallenidol2012 on Dec 30, 2011 1:03 PM EST via Android app reply actions
how is the android app? my iphone app has been pissing me off to no end lately
Writing things on occasion @ Head Kick Legend.
Team Captain for Ruining Your Special Night. That's what we do.
by Earl Montclair on Dec 30, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
A lot better than the MMA app
…for Bloody Elbow and it wouldn’t let me post on there, so I came here…love it!
by fallenidol2012 on Dec 30, 2011 1:07 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
right on
Writing things on occasion @ Head Kick Legend.
Team Captain for Ruining Your Special Night. That's what we do.
by Earl Montclair on Dec 30, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Wait, you guys all picked Lesnar AND Cerrone??
I’ve got to say I think those are two of the closer fights of the year, pretty surprised that you are all on the same page….
Needless to say, I am picking Overeem and Diaz
All these, uh, dealmakers making deals. Ya know, I don't, all I know is I'm ready to fight so, ya know, I'm sorry I didn't make it to the beauty pageant.
Let me get this right
Everyone here is picking the mid 30s guy who hasn’t fought in over a year, who’s looked horrible in his last two fights, and who has spent half his time the last couple of years dealing with a life-threatening case of diverticulitis? Did I get that right.
Overeem because it’s impossible to pick Brock after reading what I just wrote.
As for Cerrone-Diaz, Cerrone is going to kill him in the first round. He’ll then tire and wilt under the constant pressure (assisted by his reach) before succumbing to a 3rd round tko or submission after going for an ill advised takedown. Diaz in rd 3.
As for the others: Fitch, Gustafson, Nan, Assuncao, Castillo (mostly because i keep reading his name as David Castillo) Kim, Volkman (but I’ll be cheering for Efrain), Ramos, and Nunes.
I would be so totally pleased if the Diaz fight played out like that.
SquishingMachine, now at HeadKickLegend.com
I think that's going to be pretty close to what happens actually....
All these, uh, dealmakers making deals. Ya know, I don't, all I know is I'm ready to fight so, ya know, I'm sorry I didn't make it to the beauty pageant.
vs the other guy in his 30s
who’s been flat KTFO’d a number of times by weaker men and has never faced this style of fighter? Sure. Reem has his distractions as well, so I think those are probably a wash.
The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com
by Cory Braiterman on Dec 30, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
Picks
Head Kick Legend goes with the wrestler, who’d a thunk that?
My roots demand I choose the striker, but it is a close fight, I’m hoping we get surprised by how it finishes, in a good way that is
by ElvisIceman on Dec 30, 2011 4:25 PM EST via mobile reply actions
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