Title Writing: Mopping the Mats 4 "2012 Preview"

Happy Holidays all,

Mopping the Mats is a weekly Monday feature meant to wrap up the weekend that was in Mixed Martial Arts. Last week I reviewed the last Strikeforce card of the year. As there were no major shows this past weekend and also because it's holiday season I didn't put up an article on Friday. As such, there isn't much recent content to discuss today. It crossed my mind to do a year in review but I feel like I've read too many in the last few weeks to be able to say anything original, so instead I'm going to shake up the magic 8-ball my uncle gave me way back in 1995 and write a 2012 preview.

2011: Quick Reflections

At first glance it would seem impossible to have predicted what would take place in 2011 at the highest levels of MMA. Nick Diaz and Alistair Overeem fighting in an Octagon in 2011? Fedor Emelianenko losing 3 straight fights? A Heavyweight title fight on FOX? I don't think too many people were talking about those things in the days before Frank Edgar and Gray Maynard touched gloves on January 1st. Looking a little closer and the year wasn't actually filled with huge surprises. There were two major events that almost no one saw coming: The UFC purchase of Strikeforce and the major network deal with Fox. I might be wrong on the Fox front, as the UFC had been looking for such a deal for awhile but I believe that it came together faster than the insiders would have predicted.

Inside the cage though, things went generally how you might have thought. Featherweight and Bantamweight divisions were added to the UFC and Jose Aldo and Dominick Cruz, both considered dominant champions, retained their belts. Frank Edgar needed 10 months and 40+ minutes to dispatch a tough challenger in Gray Maynard. Georges St. Pierre and Anderson Silva still have not been challenged in years. Jon Jones might have risen to the top of his class a little sooner than expected but he had already been identified as a spectacular talent so it wasn't too surprising. Junior Dos Santos always had a punchers chance to knock off Cain Velasquez and he made good on that on national television in the debut of UFC on FOX. Former champions like BJ Penn, Matt Hughes, Fedor, Big Nog, Lyoto Machida had mixed results but that's not shocking, considering the brutality of this sport. And Rashad Evans still didn't get his title shot. No surprise there!

2012: Three big stories

I think the biggest story for the upcoming year is going to be the fall of Georges St. Pierre. Fall might not be the right word, but I don't think he'll be the champion again. The drama that has been the UFC return of Nick Diaz has somewhat overshadowed the rise of several real contenders in the welterweight class. Jake Ellenberger has the tools to beat the champ and could well be the belt holder by the time GSP comes back. Jon Fitch has a huge test in Johny Hendricks, who could start a 2012 title run with a victory over Fitch. And of course the two men scheduled to fight for the interim title, Carlos Condit and Diaz. Both are utter savages with serious skills and I'm not sure that a top of his game GSP could have beaten them, never mind a guy on the wrong side of 30 coming off a major knee surgery who was already starting to play it safe in fights.

The UFC is taking it's show to both Brazil and Japan early in 2012. It is the second trip to Brazil in the 6 months, with more trips on the horizon. Already home to a ton of fearsome talent, I see the sport exploding into the mainstream in Brazil. Vitor Belfort was mocked when he suggested that mixed martial arts was going to overtake soccer in the country but I think he is on to something. Look for the UFC to put on a show this year in front on 100,000 Brazilians. On the other side of the world, I fear that it might be the last trip they make to the East. Japan was the home of mixed martial arts for years and years but they have fallen fast and far. Not only is the sport not as popular as it once was, the talent level of Japanese fighters has fallen as well. Hatsu Hioki is the last great hope and he fights on the Japanese card, UFC 144. If he loses in dramatic fashion things are only going to get worse for JMMA.

The UFC had a bit of a down year in pay per view buys. There were a ton of injuries to top guys, none worse for the bottom line than the injuries to Georges St. Pierre and Brock Lesnar, who are by far the biggest draws in the company. Many were predicting that Lesnar was finished after he lost the title to Velasquez and underwent surgery to rectify the diverticulitis he was suffering with. He didn't hang up the gloves, in fact, he is just days away from returning to the Octagon to face his biggest test yet in Alistair Overeem. With a win, Lesnar will get the chance to win back his title from Junior Dos Santos. Whereas I see GSP faltering, I am confident that Lesnar will return even better than he was. He will be a feared champion again at this time next year, having smashed through Overeem, Dos Santos and (hopefully) Frank Mir.

2012: The Champions

One more weight class will be added to the promotion this year, the 125 pound flyweight division. Without further ado I predict the champions at the end of 2012 will be:

Flyweight: Demitrius Johnson
Bantamweight: Renan Barao
Featherweight: Jose Aldo
Lightweight: Nate Diaz
Welterweight: Nick Diaz
Middleweight: Anderson Silva
Light Heavyweight: Jon Jones
Heavyweight: Brock Lesnar

Barao is poised to become a star. His destruction of Brad Pickett was inspiring and if he gets past Scott Jorgensen he will take the belt from Cruz, who I expect to replicate his 132 victory over Urijah Faber. As for the brothers Diaz? They train harder than anyone else, they have length and they have great stand up and ground skills. They might not have the wrestling chops to truly be considered p4p greats, but they'll make up for it in heart and cardio. Finally, the UFC needs Brock to come back in a big way. He knows this and I believe that we were seeing his shadow against Carwin and Velasquez. He wouldn't come back if he wasn't confident he could win and win he will.

Thanks for reading. Comments and criticism is welcomed.