Big Things Brewin': Who Has the Most To Gain at UFC 140?

UFC 140 has been criticized by some as a lackluster card featuring a handful of bouts with little to no title picture relevance and a main event between an undeserving challenger and hard-to-root-for champion. Many theories have been floated regarding the event's inability to sell out its venue and the quality of the card is one of the most frequently mentioned.

However, we've seen cards before that appear weak on paper and then, due to a perfect storm of unpredictable factors, turn out to be events that have water cooler conversations and blog comment sections churning out waves of celebration and awe the next day. Can Toronto's second UFC be one of those events? If the right fighters have their Christmas wishes come true, it can.

Let's check out who has the most to gain tonight and who has the potential to elevate UFC 140 to something more than a number.

Lyoto Machida (17-2-0)

What has to happen: A win from the Dragon would not only dethrone Jon Jones, who many analysts agree is the present and future of the light heavyweight division, it could revive the almost mythical aura that once surrounded Machida like sparks of Kirby krackle. Imagine if Machida defeats Jones with a photo finish as blink-inducing as his finishes of Rashad Evans or Randy Couture? In fact, Machida doesn't even need to win to help UFC 140 reach its fullest potential. He just needs a moral victory, perhaps taking Jones to a hard-fought decision, or being finished himself after several rounds of putting Jones through the ringer. Machida needs to seriously test Jones -- his chin, his heart, his endurance. Whether the bout ends up as Welcome to the Machida Era II or just a legitimate, dramatic obstacle in Jones' quest for G.O.A.T. status, it would be one for the history books.

Will it happen?: While MMA math shows that Jones just obliterated the only two guys to beat Machida, Jones has never faced a fighter with Machida's fight IQ let alone his exotic fighting style blend. Machida has a tall task (with an incredible reach) ahead of him, but we haven't seen Jones in enough kinds of situations to consider him near invincible just yet. Return of the Dragon? Possibly.

Jon Jones (14-1-0)

What has to happen: It's hard to say that a guy who has finished his last five fights in an absolutely dominant fashion has to do anything differently, but in order to raise UFC 140 to the level of sublime MMA viewing, Jones does. Perhaps a legitimate KTFO or an instant-rewind submission in the vein of the Korean Zombie's twister? Barring that, Jones can wow by showing he has heart and gas to match. That, of course, lies in Machida's hands as much as it does Jones'. Either way, UFC 140 can be the event where the idea of Jones as a legend in the making becomes undeniable.

Will it happen?: Jones has been absolutely annihilating everyone put in front of him. Will Machida just be another sack of meat for this rawboned animal to play with? Probably.

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1-1)

What has to happen: Nog needs to finish Frank Mir, plain and simple. He can knock him out like he did Brendan Schaub back in April, which would spur talk of dangerous new weight in Nog's hands late in his career ala Dan Henderson, or he can tap him out, which would be an impressive end to a duel between two of the best submission artists in heavyweight history. What's more, an impressive finish of Mir would reinvigorate Nog's standing in the division and make his recent couple of L's (one of them to Mir no less) appear to be more the result of infections and injuries rather than age or irrelevancy.

Will it happen?: Not only did Nog knock Schaub right the hell out of Rio de Janeiro, he displayed a new ability to move his head out of the way when things are flying in its direction. If Mir has any intention of boxing again with the Brazilian it could turn out to be a good night for Minotauro fans. However, Mir has leveled-up in the later stages of his career in ways that Nog hasn't, growing in size and morphing his fight style, while Nog, from what we've been able to see due to long inactive periods, seems to be pretty much the same fighter but slower and shopworn. Pride never die? Unlikely.

Tito Ortiz (16-9-1)

What has to happen: Ortiz needs to chalk up another W. Period. His pantomime skills and inevitable emotional outpouring will pick up any slack created by a less than stellar fight. With perhaps one fight to go in his career after Antônio Rogério Nogueira, Ortiz would then likely be pitted against the likes of Rich Franklin or Forrest Griffin, both of which are winnable matches. If Ortiz has his hand raised above his large cranium tonight, it sets him up for possibly the best retirement story we've seen yet.

Will it happen?: It would be unwise to dismiss Ortiz's chances; he's a durable, game fighter with experience like few others. Unfortunately for him, so is Lil' Nog. Ortiz's boxing isn't quite on the same level as his opponent and Lil' Nog is facing his his fourth in a row of a gauntlet of wrestlers and shows continuing improvements in takedown defense despite recent loses. From a five-year winless streak for Ortiz to three victories (if he can stick the landing) in the twilight of his career? Unlikely.

Claude Patrick (14-1-0)

What has to happen: With GSP out with an injury and dodging millions of Skyrim jokes, it's open season in the welterweight division. Thanks to that and the low expectations of UFC 140, Patrick has an opportunity here, in front of a hometown crowd and with a main card slot thanks to Rory MacDonald's absence, to make some noise. But he'll need to be loud enough to be heard; merely stifling Brian Ebersole with his BJJ top control won't cut it.

Will it happen?: Ebersole has more fight experience than perhaps Patrick and his whole gym combined, but the Prince is on a six-year win streak and his Nova Uniao-honed guillotine is sharp enough to shave the hairow if he can catch him. Can Patrick shut down Ebersole and get some shine from a now hero-less Canada? Possibly.

Mark Hominick (20-9-0)

What has to happen: Hominick's last fight was also in Toronto, against champ Jose Aldo, and it was pure Rocky, a heart-filled performance that left Hominick with a stadium full of new fans and an extra forehead to make up for his belt-less waist. Following that, Hominick dealt with the sudden passing of his friend and mentor Shawn Tompkins, earning sympathy and well-wishes from fans. He has a great chance here in front his fellow Canucks to ride that goodwill and cement himself as both a threat and a crowd pleaser. It's the Machine vs. the Zombie, and the result might be as awesome as the nicknames suggest if Hominick is fired up and in Terminator mode.

Will it happen?: Chang Sung Jung has a loose striking style perfect for Hominick's hands to slice through. The Zombie is proficient on the ground and may present some problems to Hominick if the fight ends up there, but Hominick has shown improved groundwork since tapping to Josh Grispi back in 2008. Tompkins' absence is an interesting intangible, but Team Tompkins appears united and motivated by the passing of their friend and coach. Is Hominick coming home, coming home, yet again? Probably.

(image via cdn3.sbnation.com)