UFC 138: Main Card Preview and Prognostications

Alright. We get it MMA media. The card sucks. And? And nothing. While I've been just as critical of the card itself as anyone else, there are clearly political factors motivating 138's very existence. With the Spike deal nearing extinction, you just can't expect the UFC or Spike to promote the card in the way a typical card would necessitate. Plus: would anyone complain if these fights were spread out across UFC 136 and FOX?

Of course not. Leben, Munoz, Pickett, Etim, Alves, and even Barao are quality fighters and I think that if they were on a facebook prelim, we'd be excited to watch them compete. In a way, we still are. It's the whole PPV thing that changes the context. Who will be the winners? Who will be the losers? Peer into my crystal ball and let's find out.

Chris Leben vs. Mark Munoz

From Leben's loss to Jake Rosholt until now, Chris has seen quite the run. Beating Simpson and Akiyama was impressive, and while he suffered a bump in the road losing to Stann in which his "block punches with face" defense didn't work, he rebounded with a knockout win over Wanderlei Silva.

Munoz is coming off a fairly polished run of his own. I like Munoz in the fight but not by much. Mark has a tendency to get caught, and against Leben, getting caught will get him finished. But I think despite some scares, Munoz should be the victor. Part of my reasons have to do with Chris Leben's health. The only reason, I'd argue, Leben beat Silva is because Wanderlei's chin has deteriorated even worse than Leben's. It's an abstract point to make on the surface, but I really do think Leben will show signs of serious wear and tear. Munoz is no pillow puncher. And Leben, despite being able to take a punch, doesn't respond well.

His body locks up, as it did against Akiyama and Stann, which leaves him dangerously open (more so than usual). Leben has that old "puncher's chance", but so does Munoz and I'm more confidant Mark will recover during the firefight than Chris. This fight will be brutal, and will end in brutal fashion. They'll prove why they're the main event, even if Pickett/Barao is the best fight on the card. But before I get to that: Munoz by TKO, round 1.

Brad Pickett vs. Renan Barao

If injuries didn't halt his career, Pickett might have been the one fighting Dominick Cruz for the title instead of the guy he dominated in Demetrious Johnson (although I should note that while Pickett won comfortably, Johnson found consistent success when he actively sought takedowns: Johnson, despite his wrestling background, fought like a prototypical striker early in his career). This fight is the best fight on the card for me. 

Mainly because I believe Pickett is the best fighter on the card. While he doesn't punch as hard as his nickname implies, he's got solid hands and unlike most British imports, can wrestle (this was how hw defeated Mighty Mouse). Barao, like most fighters out of Nova Uniao, is relatively well rounded with a strong ground game complimented by competent standup.

While Barao isn't as dangerous on the feet like most of his stablemates (Jose Aldo being the most notable), he's still decent enough. However, "decent enough" won't be sufficient against Pickett. For this reason, I got Pickett by decision. It'll be an interesting decision, however, with Pickett contending with Barao's efforts on the ground. But with Pickett being the better boxer, I think he wins comfortably in a very technical scrap.

Thiago Alves vs. Papy Abedi

Alves' career projectory has been rocky to say the least. He has a deceptively bad record at 18-8, with most of those losses coming early on his career, and some oddball defeats in the middle, like his losses to Derrick Noble (who still gave him trouble in the rematch when Noble hurt him with a bodyshot), and Spencer Fisher. But he's considered elite at WW, having fought for the title and racked up impressive wins.

Not much is known about Abedi. Against Nathan Schouteren (Abedi's last bout), Abedi has good raw power in his hands, but he's very reluctant on the feet, and isn't versatile. This is in very stark contrast to Alves, who can crack with his fists, and his feet. If Alves has trouble, it will be because he is experiencing a real decline. He's a 1-3 in his last four, didn't look special in that victory (the fight against Howard was exciting, but not a fight Howard should have been in), and if he has trouble with Papy it won't be a good sign.

Abedi's a competent fighter, but not a special one. I think Alves wins by TKO, round 2.

Terry Etim vs. Eddie Faaloloto

Etim hasn't been in the cage since April of last year. His career has been plagued by injuries, and the last time he saw action, Rafael Dos Anjos derailed what was a considerable hype train.

Still, he's a versatile fighter. Think Cerrone-lite. And not as talented, or angry. I don't have much to say except that I feel bad for Faaloloto. His wikipedia page explains how he got shot in the hand in high school, and got stabbed in the arm fighting off muggers once. He's 0-2 under Zuffa promotions, and so a loss will entail the pink slip that he will inevitably get. Etim by brabo choke, round 2.

Cyrille Diabete vs. Anthony Perosh

In the battle of middling LHW's, Diabete is the better fighter, though not by much. Perosh looked like a savage against Tom Blackledge at UFC 127. Of course, he was fighting Tom Blackledge.

Despite Diabaete's vaunted striking, Gustafsson tore him a new one, and he failed to put away Steve Cantwell, who was a walking zombie after round 2 in their fight. I honestly suspect Perosh will win. But I have a reputation to protect. Wait...no I don't. Perosh by decision.