UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson - The Betting Article

The upcoming Hendo vs Shogun match is actually not one I would recommend betting on too strongly, because there's always a ton of variables in every Shogun fight these days. The "which Shogun will we see" question comes up in every fight, and it will take a good string of wins for this question to ever be erased. It's completely legitimate, too. Do we see the surgery-effected Rua of the Coleman and first Forrest fight? The guy who said that the flying knee three seconds in against Jones took his gas for the entirety of the fight? Or do we see the blitzkrieg? The wrecking ball that blasted out Chuck Liddell, Lyoto Machida and Forrest Griffin in under ten minutes total?

Quite frankly, there are a lot less questions about Henderson other than when does age finally catch up with him. Quite frankly, as a +110 underdog, I would say lay a few on Hollywood and see if he can't H-bomb yet another victim. Quite frankly, I won't ever say quite frankly again this article. Sorry for channeling Rhett Butler. As a reminder, all of these odds are from Bodog,  rather than an amalgamation of whichever site has the best odds.

Personally my favorite match on this card is Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le. Silva has a number of issues, mainly the fact that his chin is shot. At the time of this writing, someone had amusedly altered his record on Wikipedia to 44-0-1 (the draw coming to Cro Cop under a "special rules" match). However, graffiti aside, the actual record is much less glorious, especially as of late. He got KTFO'd by Chris Leben and Quinton Jackson and just a few matches ago, Hendo and Mirko joined that club. That makes four of his last eight have ended with him being woken up by concerned trainers and medical staff.

The converse to those gloomy facts about our beloved Axe Murderer are that most of those losses have come by punches. Ignoring the CC loss five years ago, he got blasto'd straight on the jaw by some of the biggest power punchers in the history of this division. Cung Le has extremely powerful kicks, but most of those are to the body, not the head. He's a technical striker, but not known mostly for his powerful punches. He's also 1-1 to the sole power-puncher on his record, the less than inimitable Scott Smith. That loss came after a particularly long layoff when Le worked on his movie career - which is exactly what he's facing now. There's also the question about how he fights a hyper-aggressive fighter like Wanderlei - something he's never done in his eight-fight MMA career.

All in all, I think the questions about Le as well as the particular matchup makes me look favorably at Wanderlei at a +120 dog. I'm sure some of it is my inner fanboyisms crying out, but here I think that Le has just as many, if not more shrugs and maybes going into this fight than Silva. I'll take the underdog in that case most times. It's a solid value bet. And who doesn't want MORE reasons to root for Wanderlei Silva?

There are a ton of other fights that are close on this card and a lot of them are somewhat attractive, even if only as a parlay. Kyle Kingsbury is only a -150 favorite against Stephan Bonnar. I like Stephan as much as the next guy. He helped put the sport on the map and bust into the mainstream. Sometimes he comes up with a perfect storm of aggression and tenaciousness, such as in the Krzysztof Soszynski fight, but for the most part, he is a gatekeeper with a 7-6 UFC record. Quite honestly, so is Kingsbu, but he's also fought this year. He's also a wrestler and Bonnar has shown some vulnerability to wrestlers in the fairly recent past (Coleman, Jones). I like KK in this bout at essentially even odds.

Chris Weidman is a big favorite (-350) against Filthy Tom Lawlor, and I personally think he's going to win. However, we're looking for good odds and reasons to be on underdogs. Weidman is only 6-0 in his MMA career and Lawlor is the type of  veteran who might give someone like the All American issues. That said, I would only put a bet on Lawlor on an underdog parlay. I'd also see what prop bet odds there are that Lawlor comes out to the weigh-ins in a goofy costume. That seems like a lock at whatever odds personally.

Rafael Dos Anjos is an interesting +140 underdog to Gleison Tibau. I don't think either gentleman will be vying for championships at any point during their career, but neither are they scrubs. That said, Dos Anjos has looked pretty decent as of late - broken jaw from Guida aside - in hitting George Sotiropoulos with a punch thrown from the cheap seats, armbarring Terry Etim and outlasting a pair of middling lightweights. Perhaps the ATT fighter continues his run, but I'd toss a little on Anjos in a parlay.

The final fight I'd look into betting on is Ryan Bader (-380) against Jason Brilz (+290). Again, underdog parlay this sucker up. Bader got blasted and choked by the ghost of Tito Ortiz and looked like a chump against Jones (to be fair, so do a lot of people). They say that winning is contagious, but so is losing. We thought Little Nog was going to walk through Brilz, and instead we got one of the best grappling matches of the year. Now Bader is a much better wrestler than both Nog's combined, but that isn't to say that this might not become a drawn-out close decision.

Hit up Dos Anjos, Brilz and Lawlor and you've got yourself a twenty dollar bet that wins 663. Hell, play it safe with Anjos, Bader and Weidman and that's still a 3:1 payout. Chuck some coin on Hendo and Wanderlei and chant PRIDE NEVER DIE as you cash in on some good value bets.