Who By Fire: DREAM 15 Commentary and Predictions

What do you get when you mix a reserved, stoic tactician with an attention grabbing histrionic? A potentially classic title fight. After over a year of teasing by FEG, the much anticipated bout between Tatsuya CRUSHER Kawajiri and Shinya Aoki will finally take place on July 10th. I haven't legitimately been anticipating any fights this year, other than Machida-Shogun 2, so it's really good to have that feeling of excitement again. I'm fairly confident that this fight will easily meet expectation. The problem is defining what we expect. This is Shinya Aoki so all speculation and expectation really goes out of the window.

Where will this find end up? Will Kawajiri's submission defense be able to get him out of tight spots? Can Aoki withstand the brutal onslaught of the CRUSHER's ground and pound? So many variables that could potentially determine whose hand is raised at the end of the day. That's what makes a great title fight as Lesnar and Carwin showed. Let's hope the Lightweights can deliver. I'm sure they will.

Who By Very Slow Decay

There was a time when Japanese organizations had a monopoly on the Lightweight talent. Very few of the "monopolized" individuals have managed to retain a consistent performance pattern and have remained relevant since the demise of PRIDE and HERO's. Mitsuhiro Ishida (18W-6L-1D) joins the likes Takanori Gomi, Vitor "Shaolin" Ribeiro, Gesias JZ Calvancante, and Joachim "Hellboy" Hansen who have had a hard time recovering their glory days. The most astounding thing is that with the exception of JZ Calvancante, they're all 31 years of age. By no stretch of the imagination are they "over the hill" ,but their recent performances have me really scratching my head as to how these guys have fallen off the radar so swiftly.

Ishida has floundered in mediocrity since the death of PRIDE and hasn't really been able to find his footing. He has fought in both DREAM and STRIKEFORCE but hasn't really shown shades of his old self. Ishida's exceptional endurance and never-say-die attitude earned him the "Endless Fighter" moniker but he hasn't really shown it in his last performances. The more "vocal" of the 2 T-Blood lightweights has recently been forced to play second fiddle to Kawajiri. I say vocal because if you watch ANY fight featuring Kawajiri, you'll hear this piercing voice screaming every second of every round. That's Ishida. Poised for something better Ishida, like the many others on the Japanese scene, hasn't evolved as a fighter. His notorious grinding style hasn't been as imposing as in the past, which means that he can quickly find himself becoming irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

Daiki "DJ Taiki" Hata (11W-6L-3D) is making his return to MMA after a mixed showing in his pursuit to become K-1's 1st -63kg Champion. He looked incredibly comfortable and prepared when he faced wildman Kazuhisa Watanabe in his K-1 debut. DJ Taiki secured a decision win by mauling the unorthdox Watanabe's legs with leg kicks and not allowing his opponents antics to distract him. Sadly, he wasn't able to repeat the same performance against Yuta Kubo in the Round of 16 and had an early exit. His last MMA bout was against the reborn Kazuyuki Miyata in a reserve bout where he dropped a decision.

Both men have a lot to gain and a lot to lose with this bout. For Ishida, he needs to start getting the ball rolling with a nice streak to reclaim his position towards the top of the DREAM Lightweight contenders. For Taiki, it could be a monumental step in trying to solidify himself as a young player in the grand scheme of things. It certainly wouldn't hurt his K-1 career either with bigger MMA wins. A lose could push both men into the mediocrity status.

Hata is hard to finish and Ishida almost never finishes anyone so it's safe to assume that if Ishida were to win that it would be by decision. Ishida's chin is a bit suspect. Both Gomi and Hirota, who had the bigger striking advantage in their fights, managed to tag and stagger Ishida really quick in their fights. I think Hata could follow suit. His recent trek into K-1 could only help improve an already good striking base. Prediction: Hata via Unanimous Decision

Who By Brave Assent

The rise of Gegard Mousasi (28W-3L-1D) into legitimacy was a very spectacular and quick occurrence. Going into the DREAM Middleweight GP a lot of people felt that he had the potential of going far into the tournament but never felt that he could actually win it with more established names like Kang or Mayhem in the mix. In the past he had participated in PRIDE to mixed results but this "new" Mousasi was a shell of his past self. 4 fights later he was crowned champion and skyrocketed up the rankings. He recently decided to move up a weight class and see how he fairs with the larger Light Heavyweight fighters. A quick dispatching of Renato Babalu Sobral and he was now rocketing up the Light Heavyweight rankings. Sadly, Muhammad King Mo Lawal sort of changed Mousasi's short term goals.

To me, King Mo really helped to dispel this small aura Mousasi began building up. Granted he did look really great in the 1st rounds but eventually just kept getting taken down at will by a incredibly gassed Lawal. Luckily (or Unluckily) for Mousasi, he's drawn another wrestler. Jake O'Brien (13W-3L) is his opponent in this most rushed Light Heavyweight GP. O'Brien is most famous for his picture perfect display of lay and pray against Heath Herring at UFC Fight Night 8. That was kind of it for him though. He looked out of place against Arlovski, Rothwell and Jon Jones all of which ended up finishing him in their respective bouts.

When you think about it, O'Brien does in fact posses some of the primitive tools to beat Mousasi. Him actually going out and doing that is a whole different ballpark. Mousasi became frustrated when his attempts to defend the takedown became futile. It was just repetitive for 3 rounds. A completely gassed and shot Lawal was able to go out and put Mousasi on his back over and over. I think Senator Lloyd Bentsen put it best when trying undermine Dan Quayle's bold assertion of having as much congress experience as JFK. He simply said "I knew Jack Kennedy. Senator, You're no Jack Kennedy." That's how I feel about O'Brien. He's not Lawal, who literally takes down everyone ever fought and just brutally punishes them. Gegard is too smart, too well rounded for O'Brien. Gegard needs to regain his tracking and will do so at the expense of O'Brien. Prediction: Mousasi via Round 1 TKO.

Who By Avalanche

It really boggles my mind sometimes when I see 2 fighters in MMA with very distinct records fighting each other. By distinct I mean someone with a winning record fighting someone who has actually never won a fight. I understand fighters in their early stages taking on people with slightly more experience but the fight between Michihiro Omigawa (10W-8L-1D) and Young Sam Jung (0W-2L) is just wrong. Jung has a combined 2 fights, both losses and both coming via stoppage with a combined time of 4:19 seconds in the ring. That against a Top 10 Featherweight, whose won 6 of his last 7 fights against opponents like Marlon Sandro, Hatsu Hioki and Hiroyuki Takaya. I don't want to see this. Shame on DREAM for even contemplating this. Prediction: Omigawa via Round 1 KO

Who In Solitude

It seems like yesterday that the Judoka's were the biggest attraction on the PRIDE circuit. Makoto Takimoto, Hidehiko Yoshida, Naoya Ogawa, and Kazuhiro Nakamura (14W-10L) were all pushed by DSE to dizzying heights by PRIDE. While a newer class like Hiroshi Izumi and Satoshii Ishii continue the tradition, the only one of the older guard still fighting is Kazuhiro Nakamura. "Nak" like his Judo counterparts were immediately thrown to the wolves and were never really given the time to develop as fighters. When you look at his record Nakamura has strangely had some of the strongest competition in recent MMA history. Wanderlei, Lil Nog, Shogun, Machida, Barnett, Randleman, Vovchanchyn and Dan Henderson to name a few. At the end of the day, Nak is Nak. He's not really the fastest, strongest, smartest fighter but he's got guts and guts is enough.

Rarely do I ever find nicknames fitting(other than Sexyama, obviously), but Psycho fits perfectly for Karl Amoussou (11W-2L-2D). Amoussou is dynamite when he steps into the ring. Quick, incredibly well rounded, and uber-entertaining. He has that old Chute Boxe edge to him, where he is a badass and he just wants everyone to know it. It doesn't hurt that for some reason or another he reminds me a lot of Daniel Acacio. I don't know why. Amoussou is a black belt in Judo but you really wouldn't know that from how he starts off his fights. When he takes the fight to the ground it's a whole different world though. He's very precise but quick to secure a submission from his back or any other position.

In the clash of the Judokas I'd have to give the edge to Amoussou. I think he's hungry and determined to put on a spectacular show. I think the fact that this is technically his major promotion debut will help fuel him. Nakamura doesn't really have any tools to combat Amoussou. Amoussou is like a Whirlwind throwing everything and the kitchen sink in his fights and this should be no different. Nak can be subbed, and Nak can be KOed. Nak has never really distinguished himself in any form other than someone notorious for taking large amounts of punishment and throwing off his Gi. Amoussou's got the energy to power a small city. I see this fight being incredibly one sided. Amoussou will pounce, and Nak won't be able to stop the onslaught. Prediction: Amoussou via 1st Round TKO.

Who In Power

Melvin Manhoef (24W-7L-1D) returns to MMA after a really tough loss to Robbie Lawler to face Tatsuya Mizuno (7W-5L) in the 2nd Lightheavyweight GP bout of the night. Manhoef was on his way to one of his biggest wins in MMA when an almost one legged Lawler blasted him from nowhere after taking a brutal beating for the 1st couple minutes. Manhoef is always game and always comes to throwdown with no exceptions. Mizuno is probably most famous for losing to Cro Cop in the inaugural DREAM in a squash. What is there to say? Manhoef is everything Mizuno isn't. I don't really care too much for this fight. I feel like it's really lopsided and doesn't amount to much in the grand scheme of things since I feel Manhoef will just cruise to a simple win and advance to the next round of the GP. Prediction: Manhoef via 1st Round TKO

Who In the Nighttime

A gimmick move is a useful way for an MMA fighter to "get over" with the fans. Mirko Cro Cop had his famous Left High Kick, Quinton Jackson had his slams but Katsunori Kikuno (13W-2L-2D) has something incredibly unique. The Kikuno Crescent Kick has taken on a new life of it's own and helped propel Kikuno to sort of a 3rd place spot in the DREAM Lightweight Picture. Aoki and Kawajiri would be 1 and 2. Kikuno's Kyokushin techniques have thus far translated excellently into MMA. He ammased a stellar 10W-1L record in DEEP going as far as becoming Featherweight champion before making his move to DREAM. His tenure in DREAM thus far has the makings of something potentially important in the overall scene. He's looked great dispatching Andre Dida and Kuniyoshi Hironaka. While he did lose to Eddie Alvarez at DREAM 12, he didn't come out looking out of place and earned himself a lot of fans even though he lost.

Gesias JZ Calvancante (14W-3L-1NC), What can I say? One of the most gifted Lightweight fighters in recent memory but has also become this enigma in recent years. The 2 time K-1 HERO's GP champion has been unable to repeat the success he saw just a few years ago when he was tearing through the competition at a furious rate. Since HERO's folded and it was converted to DREAM, Calvancante has gone 0W-2L-1NC. Dismal for someone with such talent. It's shocking to see him not win a fight since 2007.I think he was struck by the dreaded HERO's curse! Well, I made that up but if you look at the number they're pretty baffling.The 4 active K-1 HERO's GP finalists, JZ Calvancante, Andre Dida, Caol Uno, and Kid Yamamoto have gone a combined 2W-10L since HERO's died in 07. Fear the curse!

Sadly for JZ I think the curse continues. Almost 3 years of inconsistent fighting plays heavily on my decision. Calvancante is like Jigsaw puzzle to me, when all the pieces are everywhere it's one big unimpressive mess but when the right pieces are in the right place that it's truly a thing of beauty. If Kikuno were to get this win over JZ it could potentially mean a title shot down the road. Something he'd be foolish to not have in the back of his mind. JZ should look rusty in most aspects of his game and I think Kikuno will eat him up if isn't careful. Kikuno has tons to win and JZ doesn't have much to lose. Prediction: Kikuno Via Unanimous Decision.

Who By His Own Hand - Kawajiri (26W-5L-2D) vs Aoki (23W-5L) for the DREAM Lightweight Championship

Those who frequent Head Kick Legend might have noticed that I took it upon myself to catalog and compare the annual progress of both men in the Opposing Forces series so I will completely forgo any background information and give my opinion on how the fight will potentially look.

Those waiting for a stand-up battle are either a.) delusional, or b.) have never seen either men fight. It's almost a foregone conclusion that 90% of this fight will be spent on the mat. The scrambles will be chaotic in this one but when it's said and done I think Aoki will most likely be on his back in a closed guard with Kawajiri postured up trying to rain down blows. I think this position will favor Aoki because his quick feet can latch on to a triangle or armbar as quick as humanly possible. Many times in his fights Kawajiri just becomes complacent and never really looks to pass if he sees he's landing a high percentage of his blows from guard. If he does this against Aoki than he can expect a short night.

Kawajiri in my opinion should look to still ground and pound, but should really look to try and pass to half and keep the fight there. Aoki obviously isn't able to be as slick as he can due to the nature of that position. Aoki's chin isn't the strongest around and while he's never been properly KOed, he is known to get stunned like Hansen and Sakurai did. Also, Kawajiri needs to look at the blueprint that Melendez left for him. Melendez wasn't suckered into Aoki's guard. If thing's aren't looking great with his ground and pound than he should just stand up and take the Melendez approach to things.

Personally, I think Kawajiri's complacency will eventually get the best of him. He never senses a need for urgency in any of his fights. He always takes what opponents give them and keeps up with it until they give him something better and he'll just keep with that. Kawajiri's generates his strongest strikes on his knees so I don't feel like he'll change strategies and feel the urge to change. Aoki is one of the most feared grapplers for a reason. His patience is impressive. Whether it's waving "Hello, Japan." or making the mistake of leaving foot out, he always pounces when the time is just perfect and I feel that he'll eventually find it. He might take a couple 100 punches to the face but eventually he'll get what he's looking for. Prediction; Aoki via 2nd Round Triangle Choke.

SBN coverage of DREAM.15