Final K-1 MAX Grand Prix Preview and Predictions

We're less than 12 hours away from the 2010 edition of the K-1 MAX Grand Prix.  The show begins at 6:00 pm Monday Japan time, which translates to 4:00 am this morning for US fans on the east coast (though sadly it will not air on HDNet until November 19).  To get you all ready, here is our breakdown of the 11 fight card, plus our predictions.

• Hinata v. Andre Dida: This is the reserve fight for the GP.  Hinata is coming in to wrap up his break-out 2010 - a year where he scored wins over Yuya Yamamoto and Artur Kyshenko.  Dida is still cashing in on his 3 year old performances in MMA and one impressive round against Buakaw.  Watch for the Hinata train to keep rolling here. 
• Satoshi Ishii v. Katsuyori Shibata (Dream rules): For some extra MMA insight, here's Leland Rolling from BloodyElbow: "Satoshi Ishii is far from a complete mixed martial artist or a radiant star in the heavyweight prospect scene. In fact, he may never live up to the ridiculous hype that's been put on his shoulders. His stand-up is his most glaring weakness, but he remains threatening on the ground, mostly in a control game from top control. Shibata has looked absolutely awful in recent performances, and his most recent against Yoshiyuki Nakanishi was the icing on the cake of disappointment. A glance at that fight tells the story for this one. Ishii should be able to gain top control frequently and batter Shibata to victory. Satoshi Ishii via decision."
• Mike Zambidis v. Yuichiro "Jienotsu" Nagashima:  This is a fascinating clash between two wildly inconsistent fighters.  Most fans are picking Zambidis, as he is coming in off a spectacular win over Chahid at the Final 16, and is currently riding a 3 fight win streak.  Nagashima is on his own 4 fight win streak, but did not impress at the Final 16 with a somewhat lackluster win over Dida.  The real question for me is, which Nagashima shows up?  If it's the skilled, precise puncher we saw at this year's Japan GP, he can use movement to outbox the heavy hitting Zambo.  If it's the unfocused fighter who lost to Xu Yan last year, Zambo will steamroll him.  I still think the reinvented Nagashima shows up and takes this in a high quality boxing showdown.
• Giorgio Petrosyan v. Albert Kraus: A rematch from last year's Final 8, and one I talked about more yesterday.  Petrosyan easily won this last year; Petrosyan easily wins this this year.
• Gago Drago v. Mohamed Khamal: Predicting a Drago fight is a maddening experience.  Pair him with a top ranked fighter who should defeat him and Drago pulls off the shocking win (Pajonsuk, Sato).  Pair him with an over-matched opponent that Drago should be able to run through and he's likely to be upset.  He looked amazing in his crushing KO of Su Hwan Lee, but Khamal's upset win over Artur Kyshenko was highly impressive as well.  Logic says Drago, but I think Khamal is going to continue surprising people.  I'm going with my gut, and taking Khamal.
  
• Yoshihiro Sato v. Michal Glogowski: Once the heir apparent to Masato, Sato has since had that status taken away - a fact he is painfully aware of.  Just this week he stated that Ishii being on this card was necessary because Sato was a disappointment as Japan's representative.  That's just sad.  As hard as he is on himself, Sato is still a very accomplished fighter, with excellent technique and patience that pays off more often than not.  I don't see him having much trouble with Glogowski, who has the least K-1 experience of the Final 8 field.  Sato takes this.
  
• Yuta Kubo v. Hiroya: When the 63kg division started this year, it was widely assumed that it was primarily a showcase division for Hiroya.  When high school graduation got in the way, that didn't happen, and Hiroya has been out of action for nearly a year.  He's back now, and facing an incredibly stiff test.  Kubo was a finalist at the K-1 GP, a finalist at the Krush 2009 GP, and is one of the all around top 63kg fighters in the world.  He's able to really read his opponents impeccably - combine that with Hiroya's layoff and I see this as a Kubo victory.
• Semi-Final #1: I have this as Petrosyan v. Nagashima, but Nagashima or Zambidis, it makes no difference as I see it.  Petrosyan is just on a completely different level from both.  There's always the proverbial puncher's chance (particularly for Zambo), but it would be an astronomical upset for Petrosyan to lose here.
• Semi-Final #2: This is Sato v. Khamal in my books.  Sato is the obvious pick, but those continued comments about his lack of worth give me pause.  A fighter needs confidence, and if Sato is still doubting himself, that's going to hurt him.  I'm taking the upset here and going with Khamal.
• Yuya Yamamoto v. Seichi Ikemoto: A little palate-cleanser before the finals, this could go one of two ways.  If Ikemoto is game, we could see another one of the action-packed brawls Yuya loves to put on.  But in his K-1 debut, MMA fighter Ikemoto might be more tentative and sloppy, leading to a plodding affair.  K-1 has had it's share of underqualified fighters showing up and stinking up the joint this year - Watanabe v. Miyata and Komiyama v. Murahama both leap to mind.  Why we need another sub-par failed Dream fighter clogging up the MAX ranks is anybody's guess.  I'm hoping for a swift Yamamoto KO to send Ikemoto packing.
• GP Finals: I've got this as Petrosyan v. Khamal, and here's where I see Khamal's underdog run coming to an end.  I outlined it yesterday, but I just don't see anyone getting in the way of a Petrosyan repeat.  Whether it's Khamal, Sato, Drago, or even Glogowski across the ring at the end of the night, when the confetti falls, I expect it to be falling on the head of Giorgio Petorysan, the first back-to-back Grand Prix champion in K-1 MAX history.

For more on the MAX Grand Prix, check out the always excellent preview videos on K-1's YouTube channel, and check back tomorrow for more coverage.