A Kickboxing Look at Fedor v. Rogers

With all eyes in the fight world focused on this weekend's battle between Fedor Emelianenko and Brett Rogers, I thought it would be worthwhile to analyze the fight from a slightly different perspective, examining both men's stand-up from a kickboxing viewpoint. As a disclaimer, I fully understand that these are two different sports, with different needs and styles of striking. That said, this is a fight that many feel will be won or lost on the feet, so perhaps we have something to gain by looking at each man's striking.

For Rogers, the stand-up game can best be summarized in one word - power. The man has extremely heavy hands, and has used those hands to stop every opponent he's faced. From a technical standpoint, he has so far not shown a wide range of techniques, but he hasn't had to. His primary weapon has always been his short hook, which he throws repeatedly from the right and left, usually catching his opponent with the right and dropping him. It's not the most technically exact punch, but Rogers throws it in a very effective way.

Key to his punching is that when he throws these hooks, he alternates: right hook, left hook, right hook, left hook, using a good amount of speed for a big heavyweight. The end result is a high output of punches, and an inability for his opponent to simply circle out to one side and avoid damage. This is exactly what led to his defeat of Andrei Arlovski. With punches coming from both sides, Arlovski made the huge tactical mistake of backing straight up. When his back hit the cage, he had nowhere left to go and Rogers' punch found its home. Rogers combines this punching skill with a Chuck Liddell-like ability to go in for the kill when his man is hurt, leading to his 100% KO ratio.

The one other striking weapon Rogers has demonstrated is a strong knee from the Muay Thai clinch. This was seen against Abongo Humphrey, where Rogers mauled his opponent with standing knees for the TKO. These two weapons, heavy hands characterized by hooks and high knees, have been all Rogers has needed to win every fight to date. While it is possible to look down on some of his quality of competition (this is perhaps a good place to share the random fact that Chris Clark, the man Rogers made his debut against, has a record of 7-29. 7-29. The mind boggles.) the fact remains that Rogers has deadly power and a punching style that perfectly plays to his strengths.

In Fedor, you have a fighter whose overall game is so strong that his stand-up game is perhaps slightly underrated. This is a man who knocked out the taller Arlovski with pinpoint precision while Arlovski was jumping to deliver a knee. This is also the man who pushed the action standing to defeat an in his prime Mirko CroCop. Against Rogers, both of these are valuable tools. The Arlvoski fight showed that Fedor has knock-out power in his counter-striking, which could be the winning solution against Rogers. Interestingly, Rogers' chin is a complete unknown, as he's never truly been hit. If Rogers charges forward here, Fedor will likely use those counters to test his chin. The danger with Rogers is that it only takes one punch from him to daze his opponent, and that has so far been all the opening he needs.

A safer stand-up strategy to use against Rogers may have been laid out in the Humphrey fight. The only man to take Rogers into round 2 (or even past the 3 minute mark of round 1), Abongo used a similar strategy Fedor used against CroCop to keep Rogers from settling. He pushed the action, throwing a range of punches and kicks, never allowing Rogers settle down, plant his feet and really throw back. Unfortunately for Abongo, he was unable to keep this strategy up into round 2, when Rogers caught him and finished it. Still, this is a style Fedor has used to defeat powerful strikers in the past, and it could prove to be highly effective here.

As long as it stays on its feet, this fight comes down to Fedor trying to avoid that Rogers barrage, and Rogers trying to get Fedor backing up and catching him with a solid hook. This could easily be a fight that's over in 10 seconds, and it could easily be a fight that ends up on the ground rather quickly, but if they do stand up, I look forward to seeing how each man works his striking skills to his advantage.